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Vitalik:预测市场给出的概率通常比媒体影响形成的判断更准确

2025-08-27 10:34:46

ChainCatcher 消息,8 月 27 日,以太坊创始人 Vitalik Buterin 在针对近期关于预测市场的讨论时称,"在硬币投票中,如果你投错了,不会有惩罚,唯一的风险就是你个人可能恰好把结果推向边缘的那一点极小概率。而在预测市场中,如果你判断错误就会亏钱,且如果你押注很大,亏的钱也会很多。我个人觉得,预测市场给出的概率通常比我受到(专业或社交)媒体氛围影响而形成的判断更准确。它们实际上帮助我保持理性,不会高估事情的重要性(但也能让我在真正重要的事情发生时意识到它的重要性)。"

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