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SOL $123.10 +4.60%
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LINK $14.44 +0.53%
HYPE $91.33 +2.45%
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SUI $1.21 +4.74%
XLM $0.2265 +2.72%
ZEC $1,399.39 -0.01%
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AMZN $252.48 +1.30%
GOOGL $343.91 -0.38%
MSFT $516.63 -0.36%
META $728.09 -0.66%
NVDA $237.00 +2.64%
TSLA $369.73 +3.46%
SNDK $1,744.97 +0.14%
INTC $124.12 +3.80%
SPCX $153.28 +1.01%
MU $1,094.46 +4.26%
AMD $639.03 +3.72%

数据:BTC 触及关键支撑位,波动率降低但防御性仓位仍占主导

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 发文表示,比特币(BTC)在重新测试 2 月低点后回落至重要支撑区域。期权市场数据显示,尽管价格接近关键水平,但隐含波动率已从近期高点明显回落,1 周隐含波动率从约 60% 降至 35%,整体波动率曲线同步下移,市场对未来不确定性的定价明显降温。

同时,25Δ偏度也从抛售期间的极端水平回落,短期限保护需求有所正常化,显示恐慌性对冲情绪正在减弱。不过,结构性防御仓位仍占主导。数据显示,短期限期权仍偏向下行保护,近一周看空期权成交占比约 28%,显著高于看多期权买入比例(24.1%)。

同时,1 个月隐含波动率已低于实际波动率,市场出现“隐含波动率低估现实波动”的情况。在 62,000 美元附近存在显著短 Gamma 集中区(约 18 亿美元规模),若价格进一步下探可能加速波动放大,而在 60,000 美元附近则存在一定长 Gamma 缓冲区。整体来看,尽管波动率降温,但市场仍处于偏防御的仓位结构之中。

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