Author: MIIX Capital

Introduction:

Bitcoin has surpassed silver to become the second-largest ETF commodity category in the United States. With the official trading of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, its cumulative trading volume has exceeded $10 billion. However, just seven days after the trading day, dormant Bitcoin whales holding over $2.1 billion began transferring through multiple associated addresses. If GBTC investors continue to take profits, Bitcoin prices will face further downward pressure in the coming weeks.

1. Investment and Financing Observation

Last week (01.15~01.21), there were 20 investment and financing events in the global blockchain space, with a total funding scale exceeding $220 million:

• In the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, there were 3 investment and financing events, including the Renzo protocol, which focuses on re-staking Ethereum assets, successfully raising $3.2 million in seed funding, led by venture capital firm Maven11 Capital;
• In the GameFi sector, there was 1 investment and financing event, with mobile game developer AOFverse announcing the completion of a $3 million private financing round, led by Animoca Ventures;
• In the infrastructure and tools sector, there were 8 investment and financing events, including the decentralized automotive data network Digital Infrastructure, which completed a $11.5 million Series A funding round, led by CoinFund;
• In other Web3 and crypto projects, there were 5 investment and financing events, including the Wield project in the Farcaster ecosystem, which announced on the X platform that it raised over $1 million in Pre-Seed funding, led by Lemniscap;
• In the centralized finance sector, there were 3 investment and financing events, including the digital asset financial services group HashKey Group, which announced completing nearly $100 million in Series A funding with a pre-investment valuation exceeding $1.2 billion; WOO X announced completing a new round of funding of $9 million to improve liquidity, with participation from Wintermute, Selini Capital, Time Research, Presto Labs, Pulsar, AlphaLab Capital, Efficient Frontier, Amber, and Riverside Hedge;

- No new financing cases were announced in the NFT and metaverse sectors;

• Compared to last week, the number of investment and financing events in the cryptocurrency market slightly increased this week. In the sub-sectors, this week's investment and financing amounts were concentrated in Web3 and asset management. Among venture capital firms, the notably active institutions this week were Haskey Capital and IOSG Ventures, primarily focusing on asset management and Web3.
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About AOFverse

AOFverse is headquartered in London and focuses on Web3 integration and globally loved IP. The company plans to launch its PvP game "Army Of Fortune" later this year, which has already garnered over 1 million downloads since its trial release in October 2023. Additionally, AOFverse announced this month that it received funding from the Arbitrum Foundation.

2. Industry Data

Grayscale Dumps BTC into CEX

• Data analytics firm Kaiko reported that Binance traders led the Bitcoin sell-off, with Binance's spot market CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) continuously declining, indicating a significant outflow of funds. Analysts predict that Bitcoin prices may further drop to $40,000 or lower until the market's retracement momentum weakens. (IntoTheBlock data: Bitcoin has seen inflows into CEX for six consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of nearly $2 billion since last December.)
• The impact of the current Bitcoin spot ETF has largely dissipated, with volatility significantly decreasing. This week, the PCR reached 1.1 in a bull market for the first time, indicating that bearish forces are prevailing this week. Based on the current market tone, the long-term passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to bring a substantial influx of incremental funds to the crypto market. However, it currently faces bearish divergence in Bitcoin's RSI and selling pressure from Grayscale, so the next major hotspot may be the anticipation of Bitcoin's halving.

Layer2 TVL Decreased by 3.8% in the Last 7 Days

• L2BEAT data shows that due to the decline in coin prices, the total locked value (TVL) of Ethereum Layer2 has slightly decreased to $21.3 billion, with a 7-day decline of 3.1%. The top five locked values are:
• - Arbitrum One ($10.55 billion, 7-day decline of 4.85%);
• - OP Mainnet ($5.41 billion, 7-day decline of 9.15%);
• - Manta Pacific ($1.55 billion, 7-day increase of 85.70%);
• - Base ($731 million, 7-day decline of 3.21%);
• - Metis Andromeda ($708 million, 7-day decline of 25.05%).

Smart Money Movement -- $SAVM

This week, SmartMoney data showed that $SAVM was heavily traded, with an increase in the proportion of SAVM in the inflow data of tokens held by Smart Money this week.

About SAVM
SAVM is the token of SatoshiVM, with a total issuance of 21 million tokens, released weekly on Sundays, with 2% in the Bounce IDO and another 1% in the APE terminal IDO.

About SatoshiVM
SatoshiVM, as a ZK Layer2 for BTC, is EVM compatible and uses BTC as Gas Fee.

• The project has gained significant attention in the market, raising a total of $1.31 million worth of ETH from its launch on Bounce (the IDO platform for BTC), but the total number of participants was only over 9,000, far from the maximum hard cap of 30,000. At the APE TERMINAL, with a hard cap of $260,000, it only raised $100,000 and did not fully raise. As of January 24, 2024, the current price is $10.74 per token, with a market cap of $80 million and a fully diluted valuation of $226 million, having increased over 286 times since the IDO.
• It is important to note that SatoshiVM is currently only in the speculative expectation stage, with no actual ecological progress, and the project tokens are issued during the testnet phase;

Re-staking Track Gaining Momentum - $Renzo

• On January 21, DeFiLlama data showed that the liquidity re-staking protocol Renzo in the Eigenlayer ecosystem reached a TVL of $124 million.

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Previously, Renzo announced the completion of a $3 million seed round funding, led by Maven11, with participation from SevenX Ventures, Figment Capital, and IOSG, among others.

• With the rise of EigenLayer, bringing Restaking to the forefront, this week saw a significant inflow of SmartMoney into ETH re-staking tokens (such as swETH, rsETH, weETH, etc.). According to Dune statistics, the most inflows this week were into re-staking protocols including ether.fi, Swell, Lido, and Kiln, but these projects have not yet issued native tokens.
• Currently, the APR for Ethereum Staking is 3.13%. With the rising popularity of EigenLayer-type re-staking and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, on-chain activities in Ethereum are recovering, and its APR is likely to rise significantly further. The Ethereum Staking APR is expected to become the "base interest rate" in the blockchain world until it exceeds the Federal Reserve's base rate, which will attract significant real-world funds to Ethereum, especially after the approval of the ETH ETF.

3. VC Holdings Dynamics

Note: VC holdings data source:

https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/；

4. This Week's Focus

January 22

• - The Aave community will complete the proposal vote for "Deploying Aave V3 on the Scroll Mainnet";
• - Huobi HTX will launch the HTX DAO token HTX, with redemption starting at 16:00;
• - Acala (ACA) will unlock approximately 4.66 million tokens at 8:00, worth nearly $440,000, accounting for 0.53% of the circulating supply;

January 23

• - The Cosmos Hub community completed the proposal vote to "Set the Minimum Inflation Rate to 0%";
• - Dydx will unlock approximately 570,000 tokens at 23:00, worth about $1.7 million, accounting for 0.18% of the circulating supply;
• - SEC vs. Binance court hearing;
• - BSC plans to conduct a hard fork of Kepler on the mainnet;

January 24

• - Klaytn will incorporate the gold RWA DeFi platform Goldstation into its ecosystem and provide services to Korean users, including GPC staking;
• - The L2 network Mint Blockchain, focused on NFTs, will issue the MintID multifunctional equity NFT PASS, with minting ending today;

January 25

• - The cross-chain bridge Router Nitro will launch on the mainnet;
• - Binance will list AltLayer (ALT) at 6 PM;
• - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision;

January 26

• - Klaytn will collaborate with LINE's blockchain Finschia, with two proposals for merging the two existing blockchains starting voting today, lasting until February;
• - The cross-chain trading infrastructure zkLink will conduct a community token sale on CoinList at 2 AM;
• - U.S. core PCE data for December;

January 27

• - Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock approximately 16.69 million tokens at 22:00, worth $8.6 million, accounting for 5.94% of the circulating supply;
• - The AI-based Prompt-UGC platform NFPrompt will conclude its first season airdrop;

January 28

• - SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock approximately 9.11 million tokens at 8:00, worth $2.5 million, accounting for 0.73% of the circulating supply;

5. Conclusion

• The approval of the Bitcoin ETF has injected fresh blood into the market, but it is currently facing adjustment pressure in the short term; on the other hand, the decline in Bitcoin's volatility and the sharp drop in implied volatility may provide more investors with opportunities to enter the market.
• The slight decrease in Layer2 TVL and the significant inflow of Smart Money into the $SAVM token also show us the rapid changes in market liquidity. Re-staking is also providing new momentum for ETH Staking, beginning to attract more capital inflows.
• In the new week, we expect that developments in crypto regulation, Bitcoin breaking below the $40,000 support level, and updates from major mainnet ecosystems will be key factors influencing market direction. Let’s wait and see!
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All views expressed above are not investment advice. Any inaccuracies are welcome for correction or supplementation.

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