Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: July 15–19, 2024
Get to know this week's market dynamics in one article.Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 53.8%, which is $1.26 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $154.6 billion.
This week, the price of BTC saw a certain increase due to a net inflow of $1.2451 billion into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF (excluding ARK's data from July 18 and 19) and a reduction in potential selling pressure. The price of BTC broke through $67,000 from $60,000 on July 15, and ETH also surpassed $3,500. Notably, five Ethereum spot ETFs will begin trading on July 23 (next Tuesday).
This week, the top 200 projects by market cap on Coinmarket cap experienced a general price increase. The MEME series tokens performed exceptionally well, with WIF's 7-day increase of 56.87% and MEW's 7-day increase of 45.47%. The Trump series token FIGHT and the Base mascot MIGGLES also performed well. However, MEME tokens are mainly influenced by popularity and have high volatility, so investment should be approached with caution.
On July 20, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 74 (market sentiment has eased significantly compared to last week), with 1 day of fear, 2 days of neutrality, and 4 days of greed. The market is showing signs of recovery.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
A report from CoinShares shows that inflows into digital asset investment products reached $1.44 billion, with a total inflow of $17.8 billion year-to-date, setting a new historical record;
On July 15, Bitcoin saw a weekly inflow of $1.35 billion, while short positions saw an outflow of $8.6 million; Ethereum had a weekly inflow of $72 million, possibly influenced by expectations of spot ETF approvals;
If the price of Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, approximately $732 million in short positions are expected to be liquidated; if it drops to $61,000, approximately $942 million in long positions are expected to be liquidated;
Mt. Gox addresses transferred a large amount of BTC to other addresses, with a total value of about $5.7 billion;
The U.S. SEC has granted preliminary approval to at least three ETH ETF issuers, including BlackRock;
Bitwise expects that the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF will help ETH break its historical high;
LI.FI announced that its protocol has fully resumed operations and will continue to track and recover funds;
zkLink announced that the first round of ZKL token claims for Novadrop will open on July 22;
Arthur Hayes' family office Maelstrom has launched a funding program for Bitcoin developers;
Binance responded to Bloomberg's apology statement: it will continue to focus on providing the best service and innovation for users;
On July 18, WazirX suffered a theft of assets valued at over $230 million, possibly due to the leakage of the private key of the multi-signature wallet administrator;
The TON Foundation will launch TON Teleport, aimed at connecting Bitcoin with the TON ecosystem;
Polygon plans to convert MATIC to POL on September 4;
The ether.fi fund will launch the staking feature for the ETHFI token and initiate a buyback plan for ETHFI tokens;
The Sei Foundation has launched a $50 million fund for the Japanese ecosystem;
On July 19, data showed that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling $2.052 billion;
The Layer3 Foundation is about to release the initial L3 token distribution checker;
Fuel plans to launch its mainnet in early Q4, with the testnet snapshot completed;
The Indian trading platform WazirX was attacked, resulting in a loss of over $230 million;
On July 20, according to official information from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), the platform confirmed that five Ethereum spot ETFs from VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will begin trading on July 23 (next Tuesday).
Macroeconomics
On July 18, according to information from the SEC's official website, the closed-door meeting originally scheduled for today at 2 PM Eastern Time has been canceled;
On July 18, according to official documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the SEC has approved the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust and ProShares Ethereum ETF for listing on the NYSE Arca electronic trading platform;
On July 16, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in August is 91.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%;
On July 18, CME's FedWatch indicated that the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by September is 93.5%;
On July 18, Trump officially announced his acceptance of the Republican presidential nomination;
On July 19, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler reiterated a "cryptocurrency investment fraud warning" on social media, citing an article released in May of this year, explaining five ways fraudsters may lure victims into schemes involving crypto asset securities.
ETF
According to statistics, from July 15 to 19, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.2451 billion; as of July 19, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $18.694 billion, currently holding $18.281 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $21.845 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $62.748 billion.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
Bitcoin2024 Nashville will be held from July 25 to 27, 2024, at the Music City Center in Nashville, Tennessee, with a core focus entirely on Bitcoin;
EDCON 2024 will take place from July 26 to 30 in Tokyo, Japan. EDCON is an annual Ethereum community development conference aimed at inviting influential industry leaders and projects from around the world to participate and share information. This event includes five days of workshops, gatherings, and talks by industry leaders;
The seventh season of HackaTRON, hosted by TRON DAO, will accept submissions from July 25 to October 8, with a preliminary period from October 9 to 23, and a review and community voting period from October 24 to 31, with winners announced on November 13.
Project Progress
Paradigm announced that the Paradigm Fellowship 2024 will launch from September 25 to 29, with applications open until July 22. The Paradigm Fellowship is a program that gathers cryptocurrency game engineers and researchers;
The yield trading protocol Pendle's new sUSDe pool will expire on July 25, 2024, providing 20 times Sats plus USDe staking rewards daily;
The Solana DeFi derivatives platform Zeta Markets will begin its Genesis Epoch on July 25, incentivizing with 8 million ZEX. Staking ZEX before July 25 will qualify for a staking airdrop (20 million ZEX);
The Ethereum re-staking protocol Renzo ezPoints Season 2 will last for three months until July 26, planning to allocate 5% of the token supply (500 million REZ), while Season 1 participants will receive a 10% bonus.
Important Events
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's consultation on digital cash will end on July 26, with the consultation document requesting citizens to respond to questions about the design of digital cash, whether it should pay interest, and whether there should be holding restrictions.
Token Unlocking
The Worldcoin token WLD will unlock 25.53 million tokens on July 24, valued at approximately $73 million, accounting for 9.18% of the circulating supply;
The AltLayer token ALT will unlock 684 million tokens on July 25, valued at approximately $104 million, accounting for 42.08% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analyses of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a novice exploring the crypto space for the first time or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors make investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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