Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/7)

2024-09-19 15:25:24

Collection

The U.S. non-farm data for August left both optimistic and pessimistic sides not entirely "satisfied." The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which met expectations and extinguished the recession signals released by the "Sam Rule." However, the addition of 142,000 jobs in August was below the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised down, adding to the signs of a slowing labor market. The S&P fell 1.7%, down over 4% for the week, the Dow dropped 1%, down nearly 3% for the week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, down 5.8% for the week, entering a technical consolidation phase.

1. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l "Non-Farm Day" U.S. Stocks Plummet

The U.S. non-farm data for August did not fully satisfy either the optimistic or pessimistic sides. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which met expectations, extinguishing the recession signals released by the "Sam Rule." However, the addition of 142,000 jobs in August was below the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised down, adding to signs of a slowing labor market. The S&P fell 1.7%, down over 4% for the week, the Dow dropped 1%, down nearly 3% for the week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, down 5.8% for the week, entering a technical consolidation. Nvidia saw a weekly drop of nearly 14%, the worst in two years, while NIO rose over 24% for the week. The yield on 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury bonds ended the inversion, with short-term yields plunging 16 basis points to a two-year low. The dollar initially fell then rose, gold dropped 1%, the yen rose 1%, and the renminbi hovered at a 16-month high. Cryptocurrencies plummeted, with U.S. oil down nearly 8% for the week and Brent oil down nearly 10%.

l Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise Again

Market funds are somewhat conflicted, first betting pessimistically that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose from 40% to 50%, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut being evenly split. Subsequently, they began to assess the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Waller, a dove, indicated that he would advocate for preemptive rate cuts if appropriate and did not rule out supporting significant cuts. FOMC permanent voter and "Fed's number three," New York Fed President Williams, stated that a rate cut is appropriate now but did not assess whether it would be 50 basis points.

Wall Street investment banks like JPMorgan stated that there is still some time before the FOMC policy meeting, and the extent of the rate cut remains unclear. Bank of America raised its rate cut bets, expecting a 25 basis point cut at each of the next five meetings. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will cut rates three times by the end of this year, each by 25 basis points. The market believes that further observation of next week's CPI data is needed, and the Fed is unlikely to make a significant rate cut in September to solidify recession fears, while also being cautious about excessive cuts leading to a rebound in inflation. Therefore, a 25 basis point cut in September is more likely, with a potentially larger cut in November.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Bitcoin briefly fell below 53,000 USDT before rebounding, Ethereum dropped below 2,200 USDT

According to Foresight News and Bitget market data, Bitcoin briefly dropped to 52,590.35 USDT before rebounding to nearly 54,000 USDT, with a daily decline of 4.05%. Ethereum fell to a low of 2,168.18 USDT and has since rebounded above 2,200 USDT, with a daily decline of 6.25%.

l OTC Capital: Bitcoin market volatility may continue under potential rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily reported that under expectations of potential rate cuts, OTC Capital CEO Brian Dixon stated that Bitcoin market volatility may persist. He indicated that the market is expected to remain volatile, although institutional investment and ETFs may play a key role in shaping market stability, volatility will still continue. (TheBlock)

2. Hot Events

In the web3 sector:

Asset management company WisdomTree has requested to withdraw its S-1 registration filing for its Ethereum Trust submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), while also requesting that the fees be credited as "for future use." The registration statement was initially submitted on May 27, 2021. In a document submitted to the SEC on September 6, the company stated: "The company confirms that it has not and will not issue or sell any securities under this registration statement." WisdomTree acknowledged that it will not refund the fees paid to the SEC for submitting the registration statement but requests that this amount be credited "for future use."

On September 7, Elon Musk posted an image containing the word "DOGE" on X and pinned the tweet, captioned "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E). BlockBeats previously reported that Trump stated on Thursday that if he wins the election in November, he will establish a government efficiency committee led by Musk. Musk stated on social media: "If given the opportunity, I look forward to serving America. No compensation, no title, no recognition needed."

3. Hot Narratives

Last night, OKX and Binance successively launched NEIRO contracts, with the price of "Big Dog" skyrocketing, peaking at a 6-fold increase over two days. In an instant, two dogs that initially had equal market caps now had one at 25M and the other jumping to 150M. Interestingly, readers of the Rhythm Evening Report in recent days may have noticed that in the two days leading up to the official announcement of the NEIRO contract launch, NEIRO and Neiro appeared repeatedly on the daily token gainers and losers list, with the former continuously rising and the latter continuously falling. It now seems that many people had already received the news and positioned themselves in advance.

Unlike the Big NEIRO, which surged to a market cap of 10M in just one hour, Neiro collapsed at launch, taking over a week to reach 10M. Later, NEIRO's market cap soared to 290 million dollars, only to be quickly revealed that 78% was controlled by a mouse warehouse address, making it the largest mouse warehouse in the meme space, before it began to decline.

The "resurrection" of the lowercase Nerio came from an unexpected event. When the Neiro token launched, the initial deployment team transferred 17.1 billion Neiro to Vitalik's address, accounting for 4% of the total supply. This marketing strategy is quite common in the meme community, where many meme coin projects or holders send a portion of tokens to well-known figures in the crypto community or meme community callers, and then promote their holdings in the community to attract other traders to buy the tokens.

4. Potential Catalysts

In the first week of September, trading activity significantly decreased, with many market participants choosing to remain on the sidelines. Over the past week, the global cryptocurrency market cap fell by 5%, reflecting this trend. Meanwhile, large investors (known as cryptocurrency whales) are profiting from the market downturn. This week, they have been buying altcoins such as Polygon (POL), Ethereum (ETH), and the frog-themed meme coin Pepe (Pepe).

On September 4, Polygon completed its 1:1 migration of its native token from Matic to POL. Subsequently, the number of wallet addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 POL surged by over 90%, leading to a significant accumulation of whales in this token. Currently, this group of POL holders consists of 33 addresses, controlling 5% of the total circulating supply of this altcoin.

2. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is one of the largest and most preferred public chain networks for developers globally. With the development of 2.0 and Layer 2, it will continue to lead blockchain technology. Justin Drake, a member of the Ethereum Foundation, has made significant contributions to the advancement and technological innovation of 2.0. He pointed out that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum's performance improved, L2 network fees decreased, enhancing its attractiveness to developers and project parties. He also noted that the Ethereum Foundation has recently reduced its holdings of ETH because it has provided tens of millions of dollars in unconditional grants to the community, which is beneficial for the decentralization of the ecosystem in the long run. The foundation currently controls 0.23% of the ETH supply, and bringing this number close to 0% over the next few decades is healthy.

Key Projects:

· VALU

Value DEX is a decentralized system for programmatically trading cryptocurrencies (ERC-20 tokens) on Ethereum, BNB Chain, BASE, and SOLANA. This protocol is established through a series of persistent, non-upgradable smart contracts, prioritizing censorship resistance, security, and self-custody without the need for trusted intermediaries.

Recently, the most noteworthy aspect of Value is its combination of blockchain history with NFTs, capturing digital moments through generative art on Ethereum. This will make trading not just a transaction but a reflection of how we allocate valuable digital artifacts in the digital age. The market believes it can redefine value in the digital era, and market sentiment is relatively optimistic.

2. Smart Money Positioning

· Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

WOLF (@Wolf0x67 /X)

LANDWOLF is a unique work by Matt Furie. He is just a cool guy who loves to hang out with friends, eat pizza, and play video games. Beware of the full moon: that's when Landwolf turns into a party animal, roaming the streets in search of adventure. As Matt continued to draw Landwolf, he realized that this character was indeed special. He appears alongside other memorable characters like Pepe, Andy, and Brett on the first page of the iconic comic series "The Boy's Club."

ANDY (@andycoinonerc /X)

ANDY is a meme coin based on the character "Andy" from the Pepe frog animation, launched in 2024. In less than 20 days, it gained 3,269 holding addresses, with liquidity in the bottom pool reaching 1 million dollars. The official website states that ANDY and Pepe are a pair of lazy roommates, combining simple psychedelia, childlike charm, drug-fueled hedonism, and mischievous pranks, and now it's Andy's time to take charge.

· Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

JUP (@JupiterExchange /X)

Jupiter is a decentralized trading platform and the largest crypto DAO. Jupiter provides a wide range of tools to make trading easier. These include: Swaps, one of the fastest Swap APIs on Solana, where you simply input the desired currency pair, amount, and slippage, then receive serialized transactions from the API to execute the swap; Payment API, which quickly converts any token to USDC; DCA, which allows you to convert DCA into any SPL token through Jupiter's DCA program, etc.

XNET (@XNET_Mobile /X)

XNET is a decentralized, neutral host mobile network that provides fast, reliable, and affordable mobile connectivity using Wi-Fi Passpoint and 3GPP cellular technology. It utilizes citizen broadband radio service spectrum, Wi-Fi version 6+, and a network of operators coordinated using blockchain technology on Solana, dedicated to solving connectivity issues faced by global operators and underserved communities, ensuring the network provides affordable and fast connectivity solutions.