Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/24)

2024-09-27 11:29:21

Collection

According to Bloomberg, on Monday, Ed Yardeni, a well-known strategist on Wall Street and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., stated that due to the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut last week, the U.S. stock market could soar to new highs, but if the central bank's chairman does not act cautiously, it could also lead to a resurgence of inflation. He also pointed out, "The latest policy decision has increased the likelihood of stock prices 'melting up' from 20% to 30%, a phenomenon similar to the S&P 500's 220% surge from 1995 to the end of the last century during the internet bubble." He believes the probability of a bull market is 80%, while the likelihood of a market turmoil similar to the 1970s is 20%, when global stock markets were shaken by inflation and geopolitical tensions.

1. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Sector:

l Significant interest rate cuts reminiscent of 1995, U.S. stocks may surge, but inflation could resurface

According to Bloomberg, on Monday, Ed Yardeni, a well-known strategist on Wall Street and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., stated that due to the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cuts last week, the U.S. stock market could soar to new highs. However, if the central bank's chairman does not act cautiously, it could lead to a resurgence of inflation. He also noted, "The latest policy decision has increased the likelihood of stock prices 'melting up' from 20% to 30%, a phenomenon similar to the S&P 500 index soaring 220% from 1995 to the end of the last century during the internet bubble." He believes the probability of a bull market is 80%, while the chance of a market turmoil similar to the 1970s is 20%, when global stock markets were shaken by inflation and geopolitical tensions.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Ethereum spot ETF sees a surge in net outflows

According to data from Sosovalue, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $79.21 million on Monday, marking the largest single-day net outflow since July 29.

Most of the net outflow came from Grayscale's ETHE, with a net outflow of approximately $80.55 million, the largest outflow since July 31, and it was the only Ethereum spot ETF to record a net outflow yesterday. Bitwise's ETHW recorded a net inflow of $1.34 million, while the other seven Ethereum spot ETFs saw no capital movement.

2. Hot Events

Web3 Sector:

l BlackRock verifies Bitcoin holdings through node validation to ensure ETF asset security

According to renowned ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, global asset management giant BlackRock verifies its Bitcoin holdings for its spot Bitcoin ETF by extracting the balance from its Bitcoin address through its own blockchain nodes from Coinbase Prime daily. Although this data is only available to institutional clients, BlackRock has earned widespread trust with its 30-year flawless record. Unlike crypto platforms like FTX, BlackRock's ETF system is highly transparent, secure, and has always adhered to strict custody processes. Despite market skepticism regarding the transparency of its Bitcoin transactions, Balchunas emphasized that BlackRock ensures asset security and client trust through self-custody and blockchain verification.

l Siemens uses JPMorgan's Onyx blockchain to settle digital commercial paper

German industrial giant Siemens successfully issued and settled digital commercial paper worth €100,000 through JPMorgan's Onyx blockchain platform and SWIAT's private blockchain. This transaction was conducted under Germany's Electronic Securities Act (eWpG), with payments made using JPMorgan's JPM Coin system, and asset transfers completed through the delivery versus payment (DvP) mechanism of the SWIAT network. The entire process took only 93 seconds, marking the start of collaboration between Onyx and SWIAT in developing digital asset issuance products for commercial banks. This move aims to shorten the value chain, enhance transaction flexibility and speed, and promote the large-scale application of blockchain in financial transactions.

3. Hot Narratives

Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi have emerged as the best-performing ecosystems over the past year. The entrepreneurs behind these four ecosystems have shown stronger confidence in the future.

Over the past year, these four ecosystems have continuously introduced innovative projects and popular applications, leading the development of the crypto sector. In terms of attracted capital, user numbers, and project counts, these four ecosystems maintain a significant advantage. This has made them the hottest in the market, with the strongest confidence from entrepreneurs. Each sector has several tokens entering the top 100 by market capitalization, with Solana-related tokens reaching as high as 7. Meanwhile, Base, TON, and BTCFi each have about 3-6 new tokens entering the latest top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

The prosperity of these ecosystems has naturally translated into activities held during Token2049. During the hottest five days of Token2049 (September 16 - September 20), Base and TON held one to two events daily, with each event fully booked; the Solana Breakpoint event was considered by many attendees to be the best, most lively, and most vibrant event held outside the main venue of Token2049.

In contrast, during the previous Token2049, these four ecosystems were still quite "weak." At the 2023 TOKEN 2049, Solana had just revived from the FTX incident, with the price of SOL barely stabilizing at $20 without further decline. At that time, Ethereum was still the dominant force in the blockchain space, and few could predict that it would be shaken again in just a year, with many now believing Solana could surpass Ethereum; four months before the last TOKEN 2049, Ordi had continuously declined, with its market cap dropping by four-fifths to just $3, leading many to believe the Bitcoin ecosystem was dead. No one expected that two months later, Ordi would be listed on Binance and subsequently rise, with the Bitcoin ecosystem experiencing waves of L2, staking, and runes. Even less was mentioned about Base and TON, which were "invisible" during the last TOKEN 2049. However, over the past six months, they have gained firm choices from many entrepreneurs through successive successes.

4. Potential Catalysts

On September 24, Google Cloud announced a partnership with Solana Labs, with the core of this collaboration being GameShift, which provides the complete Web3 infrastructure and functionalities required for gaming, such as wallets, tokenized assets, and on-chain markets. GameShift's products have been launched on the Google Cloud Marketplace.

On September 23, Bloomberg reported that U.S. presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris stated at a fundraising event in Manhattan's Cipriani Wall Street, "I will bring together workers, small business founders, innovators, and large companies. We will work together to invest in America's competitiveness and future. We will encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors." This is reportedly Harris's first comment on cryptocurrency as a Democratic presidential candidate.

2. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Solana is a high-performance blockchain platform dedicated to providing fast, secure, and scalable solutions for decentralized applications and cryptocurrencies. The platform employs an innovative consensus algorithm—Proof of History—that can handle tens of thousands of transactions per second while maintaining decentralization and security. Solana aims to achieve large-scale adoption of blockchain through its unique technological advantages, serving various complex decentralized applications and the global financial system. Recently, the most noteworthy developments for Solana include its collaboration with Google Cloud to launch GameShift and Metaplex's launch of a decentralized indexing and data availability network, Metaplex Aura, which are expected to positively impact prices.

Key Projects:

· io.net

io.net is a decentralized GPU network aimed at enhancing the scalability, accessibility, and efficiency of computing. By aggregating GPU supply from underutilized resources, io.net creates a network that allows machine learning startups to access nearly unlimited computing power at a fraction of traditional cloud costs, making it a decentralized AI computing and cloud platform. Recently, the most noteworthy development for io.net is its strategic partnership with TARS Protocol, which is expected to positively impact the development of AI and Web3 infrastructure. The current sentiment towards io.net is optimistic regarding its application prospects in distributed computing and AI.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

· Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

$michi(@michionsolana /X)

$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain, designed to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. The design of $michi is inspired by a cute cat image, aiming to attract a wide user base, especially enthusiasts of meme culture.

DOGGO(@DoggoEthDog /X)

$DOGGO originated from a tweet by the founder of Dogecoin, "what happened to poor doggo," accompanied by a picture of a dog, specifically a Shiba Inu living in China. Recently, the peak exchange AscendEX (formerly BitMax) launched $DOGGO.

· Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

wTAO(@bittensor_ /X)

Bittensor (TAO) is one of the leading projects in the AI narrative, aiming to democratize the process of building AI use cases by creating an open peer-to-peer market for sharing and using machine learning models. The increase in the market cap of Wrapped TAO is expected to positively impact its price. The current sentiment towards Wrapped TAO is optimistic, considering it a key focus project in investment portfolios.

POPCAT(@POPCATSOLANA /X)

Popcat is an internet meme that originated in October 2020, showcasing a series of videos featuring two pictures of a domestic short-haired cat named "Oatmeal," one with its mouth closed and the other with its mouth open, the second image edited to form an "O" shape. The current sentiment towards Popcat (SOL) is optimistic regarding its position and potential within the Solana ecosystem, with market sentiment being relatively positive. The most noteworthy viewpoint is that Popcat is expected to challenge the $1 mark again, based on its position and trading activity within the Solana ecosystem.