Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/19)

2024-09-27 11:30:35

Collection

On September 18, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%. This is the first rate cut since March 2020, with a decrease of 50 basis points. The decision was passed with a vote of 11 to 1, with only Federal Reserve Governor Bowman opposing, advocating for a 25 basis point cut.

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years, causing a strong market reaction.

On September 18, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction of the federal funds rate target range from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020, with a magnitude of 50 basis points. The decision was passed with a vote of 11 to 1, with only Fed Governor Bowman opposing, advocating for a 25 basis point cut.

In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to supporting full employment and expressed greater confidence in inflation returning to target levels. The dot plot indicates that just over half of the decision-makers expect at least a 25 basis point cut in each of the remaining two meetings this year. The market reacted strongly, with the three major U.S. stock indices briefly rising before retreating, and gold prices hitting a historic high. Although the rate cut aligned with market expectations, Powell stated at the press conference that future policy directions would still need to be adjusted based on economic data, raising concerns about the economic outlook.

l The U.S. housing market receives good news as mortgage rates hit a two-year low.

Last week, U.S. mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since September 2022, stimulating home buying and refinancing applications. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), as of September 13, the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased by 14 basis points to 6.15%, marking a seven-week decline. The average rate for a 15-year mortgage also dropped to 5.42%, a two-year low.

Additionally, new housing starts in August rose to 1.356 million units, a four-month high, and building permits also reached their highest level in six months. The MBA's home purchase mortgage application index rose by 5.4%, and the refinancing application index surged by over 24%. These figures indicate that confidence in the U.S. real estate market is strengthening.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l HashKey Jeffrey: Rate cuts lead the crypto market into a new upward cycle.

With the Federal Reserve announcing a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range, HashKey Group's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that this rate cut signifies that "the darkness before dawn has passed," and a new wave of market momentum is about to arrive. The rate cut reflects the Fed's concerns about the economic environment and injects vitality into the global financial market.

In this context, Bitcoin, as "digital gold," has shown strong performance, briefly breaking through $62,000. Ding pointed out that the entire crypto market is expected to welcome a new wave of momentum under loose monetary policy, and Bitcoin's performance is more influenced by U.S. dollar liquidity rather than the outlook for the U.S. economy.

As the rate cut cycle continues, the crypto market may enter a longer period of upward movement. Despite ongoing market volatility, this wave of momentum is expected to attract more funds and innovation, driving the development of the entire crypto ecosystem.

l The Swiss Exchange plans to launch a cryptocurrency exchange targeting institutional investors.

SIX Swiss Exchange, Switzerland's largest securities exchange, is exploring the establishment of a cryptocurrency trading platform in Europe. Bjørn Sibbern, head of global exchanges at SIX Group, stated that cryptocurrencies have become a recognized asset class, and the company is researching the creation of a platform to facilitate the trading of cryptocurrency spot and derivatives.

SIX Swiss Exchange plans to leverage its reputation in Switzerland and advanced crypto regulations to attract large traditional investors increasingly interested in trading digital assets. The exchange hopes to provide a secure and reliable cryptocurrency trading venue for institutional investors, capitalizing on Switzerland's regulatory environment advantages.

2. Hot Events

Macroeconomic Environment:

ByteDance is collaborating with TSMC to develop its own 5nm AI chips, aiming for mass production by 2026 to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Reports indicate that ByteDance has ordered over $2 billion worth of Nvidia H20 chips this year and plans to have TSMC manufacture hundreds of thousands of its self-developed chips, with expected costs significantly lower than purchasing from Nvidia.

ByteDance hopes to achieve four times the computing performance of a single H100 chip through its chip cluster at similar costs. This move is a response to the intensifying competition in the AI field and the supply shortage of Nvidia chips. ByteDance's self-developed chips are currently in the design stage, utilizing 5nm technology, the same as Nvidia's upcoming flagship AI chip.

Insilico Medicine announced that its fully AI-designed small molecule drug ISM001-055 has achieved positive results in a Phase IIa clinical trial for treating idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The 12-week trial showed that ISM001-055 exhibited good safety across all dosage levels and demonstrated a significant dose-dependent efficacy trend in the forced vital capacity (FVC) measure of lung function improvement, particularly notable in patients receiving a daily dose of 60mg.

This achievement marks a significant breakthrough in AI-driven drug development, demonstrating that AI can not only accelerate drug discovery but also design innovative drugs with real clinical value. Insilico Medicine plans to discuss subsequent Phase IIb studies with regulatory authorities and conduct parallel trials in the U.S. to further validate the efficacy of ISM001-055. This success provides preliminary evidence for the potential of the TNIK target in IPF treatment and opens new possibilities for the company's future financing and IPO strategy.

Web3 Sector:

HashKey Global announced that its inaugural asset Aleo is set to launch on Coinbase, with Aleo's official announcement confirming that the mainnet is now live. Coinbase has also confirmed support for Aleo (ALEO), with the price of ALEO rising from the issuance price of $0.3 to $4.2. The decision to list on two major compliant exchanges globally has garnered significant market attention.

Following the launch of the Aleo mainnet, it will provide developers with support to build applications and products that solve real-world problems, including secure identity verification, scalable compliant payments, trust-minimized Oracle infrastructure, hidden information games, and useful proof of work. Coinbase assets confirmed this news on social media platforms.

3. Hot Narratives

With the proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePin) are gradually attracting widespread industry attention. DePin redefines the management and control of physical devices by combining blockchain technology with IoT, showcasing the potential for disruptive change in traditional infrastructure sectors. Traditional infrastructure projects often face high service costs and limited innovation, while DePin offers a new solution through decentralized management and control of physical devices using distributed ledgers and smart contract technology, enhancing system transparency, trustworthiness, and security.

The architecture of DePin includes application layer, governance layer, data layer, blockchain layer, and infrastructure layer. The application layer directly interfaces with users, providing various specific applications and services that influence user experience and network adoption. The governance layer is responsible for formulating and enforcing network rules, ensuring transparency and fairness in decision-making processes. The data layer manages and stores all data within the network, ensuring data integrity and privacy protection. The blockchain layer records all transactions and smart contracts, ensuring data immutability. The infrastructure layer supports the operation of the entire DePin network, ensuring high availability and stability.

AI technology plays a crucial role in DePin, enabling smart management and automation for functions such as fault prediction, real-time monitoring, and intelligent maintenance. AI can also optimize resource allocation, enhance network efficiency, and support intelligent decision-making through data analysis. In terms of security, AI can monitor for abnormal activities in real-time and automatically respond to potential threats, thereby enhancing the network's security defenses.

The advantages of applying DePin in AI are significant, including resource sharing and optimization, data privacy and security, enhanced reliability, and transparent incentive mechanisms. Through decentralized data markets, DePin provides a broader data source for AI models while reducing operational costs.

In specific projects, Filecoin serves as a decentralized storage network, addressing data security and privacy issues faced by traditional storage platforms through distributed data storage. Io.net is a distributed GPU computing platform that offers flexible and low-cost computing power rental services. Bittensor has created a decentralized AI model marketplace that allows independent developers to profit directly, breaking the monopoly of large companies in the AI market.

Despite the strong potential of DePin, challenges such as scalability, interoperability, and regulatory compliance remain. The future development of DePin will depend on resolving these key issues and is expected to play an important role in a wide range of application scenarios, reshaping the operational model of physical infrastructure.

4. Potential Catalysts

According to The Block, Bitwise Chief Information Officer Matt Hougan stated that although Ethereum (ETH) currently seems neglected, its poor price performance may reverse as the year comes to a close. The report noted that ETH's recent weakness is primarily influenced by multiple factors, including risks associated with the November U.S. presidential election, increased competition from other blockchains like Solana, challenges in token economics, and mixed reactions to the U.S. introducing spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Hougan believes that as the November election approaches and the regulatory environment becomes clearer, the market may reassess Ethereum's value.

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains today. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH due to reduced income and whale exits have been significant, the market remains generally optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

· CATI

Catizen is a casual idle cat-raising blockchain game based on the TON ecosystem, developed by the Pluto Studio team, and is the first game on its GameFi platform. The project combines cute cat imagery with innovative gameplay, quickly attracting a large number of players. Catizen adopts a "PLAY-TO-AIRDROP" model, allowing users to enjoy the fun of raising cats while earning $CATI rewards through in-game activities. $CATI will be launched on HashKey Global exchange on September 15, 2024, with the recharge function open, the withdrawal function starting on September 21, and spot trading scheduled to begin on September 20.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

· Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. MIGGLES (@MrMigglesOnBase /X)

$MIGGLES is a meme coin based on the Base chain, with the story of Mister Miggles revolving around a cat that became famous due to a photo, subsequently turning into an internet meme. Coinbase released a short film about Mister Miggles, detailing how the cat spread through social media and evolved into a meme coin, and the project is also tied to Coinbase's "Onchain Summer" themed event, encouraging creators to develop projects on-chain.

2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)

$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain, designed to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. The design of $michi is inspired by a cute cat image, aiming to attract a broad user base, especially enthusiasts of meme culture.

· Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. $mfer (@sartoshi_rip /X)

$mfer is a meme coin on the Base chain, created by artist sartoshi_rip. MFERS is a collection of 10,000 unique digital artworks featuring stick figure characters, created by the anonymous artist and meme creator Sartoshi. The project launched in November 2021 and has since gained a large following in the NFT community, officially releasing on March 30, 2024, with prices surging to over $0.03 on that day.

2. ZEUS (@ZeusNetworkHQ /X)

Zeus Network, as a decentralized financial infrastructure project, leverages Solana's high performance and Bitcoin's security to provide an open communication layer, enabling developers to create and deploy diverse applications across different blockchains, aiming to connect the Solana and Bitcoin ecosystems and facilitate seamless interaction between the two.