Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/18)

2024-09-27 11:30:43

Collection

Glen Capelo, Managing Director of Fixed Income at Mischler Financial Group, stated that if the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it could lead to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, but this outcome largely depends on Powell's press conference.

I. Attention Value

1. Market Conditions

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook: A Small Rate Cut May Trigger U.S. Treasury Sell-off

Glen Capelo, Managing Director of Fixed Income at Mischler Financial Group, stated that if the Federal Reserve opts for a 25 basis point rate cut, it could lead to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, but this outcome largely depends on Powell's press conference. Michael Rosen, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investments, believes that the market is pricing in the Fed's rate cut too aggressively, currently expecting a 250 basis point cut next year, which is only possible in the event of an economic recession. Therefore, he thinks that the decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields will be less than market expectations, while long-term yields may even rise from now on.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Hedge Fund Mogul Predicts: Fed Rate Cuts Will Push Bitcoin Above $100,000 This Year

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Sky Bridge, stated that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 50 basis points tonight, marking the beginning of at least a 150 basis point cumulative cut over the next 18 months. He believes this is positive for asset prices in the U.S. and globally. With a series of rate cuts from the Fed and clearer U.S. cryptocurrency regulations, Bitcoin is expected to reach a historic high of $100,000 by the end of the year.

Scaramucci is also optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency policy. He anticipates that bipartisan legislation supporting the development of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, and stablecoins will be passed early in the next congressional term. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency regulations under the Harris administration will also benefit the industry, as advisors from the campaign team have indicated support for measures that help the industry while maintaining appropriate regulation.

2. Hot Events

Macroeconomic Environment:

l Intel Announces Major Partnership with Amazon, Plans to Spin Off Chip Manufacturing Business

Intel has recently announced several positive developments, planning to spin off its chip manufacturing business into a subsidiary and forming a significant partnership with Amazon. The company will produce customized AI chips for Amazon Web Services, and this collaboration is expected to bring Intel billions of dollars in revenue. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger stated that this transformation marks significant progress for the company in revitalizing its business.

Additionally, Intel has secured contracts worth up to $3.5 billion to manufacture semiconductor components for the Pentagon and received $3 billion in government support through the CHIPS and Science Act. These initiatives will help Intel enhance its market competitiveness.

To focus on its core market, Intel has decided to suspend new factory construction projects in Poland and Germany and plans to lay off 15,000 employees to save costs. Despite facing pressure from declining sales and financial losses, Intel's stock price surged by 6.4% due to these positive developments, and it rose over 10% in after-hours trading.

l BlackRock and Microsoft Launch $30 Billion AI Infrastructure Fund, Future Investment Potential Reaches $100 Billion

On September 17, BlackRock and Microsoft jointly announced plans to launch a fund called the "Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership" (GAIIP), with an initial goal of raising $30 billion and a future total investment potential of up to $100 billion. The fund aims to invest in AI-related infrastructure, including data centers and energy projects, to meet the growing demand for computing power.

The general partners of GAIIP include Microsoft and the Abu Dhabi government-backed investment company MGX, while NVIDIA will provide technical support and expertise. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that this investment will unlock trillions of dollars in long-term investment opportunities and drive economic growth and job creation.

The fund will primarily focus on the U.S. market, aiming to build and expand data centers and related energy infrastructure to support innovation and development in AI technology. Fink emphasized that data centers are the cornerstone of the digital economy, and related investments will promote the expansion of the AI ecosystem.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella also pointed out that the new fund will help drive innovation across various economic sectors, while NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that accelerated computing and generative AI are driving the growing demand for AI infrastructure.

Web3 Sector:

The cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial, supported by the Trump family, officially disclosed on September 16, aiming to become a banking platform for cryptocurrencies. The project will launch a token called WLFI, with 20% of the tokens allocated to the founding team, including the Trump family, 17% for user rewards, and the remaining 63% available for public purchase, with no pre-sale of tokens.

Trump announced the project on social media platform X, mentioning that his views on blockchain and cryptocurrencies have changed. He had previously criticized cryptocurrencies during his presidency but now expresses support for the industry's development. Donald Trump Jr. also noted that decentralized finance (DeFi) eliminates political factors in banking.

World Liberty Financial aims to encourage the public to borrow, lend, and invest in cryptocurrencies, although there are concerns about the transparency of the founding team's ownership ratio, suggesting potential risks of quick profits. The launch of this project has raised questions about whether Trump is using his political influence for commercial interests.

3. Hot Narratives

GalaChain is a Layer 1 blockchain designed specifically for the entertainment sector, developed by Gala, aimed at supporting its expanding Web3 entertainment ecosystem. This blockchain is built on Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) and features speed, security, and scalability, suitable for various fields such as gaming, music, and film.

As the core of the Gala ecosystem, GalaChain has been successfully applied in multiple games and entertainment projects, including "SpiderTanks," "Champions Arena," and the music streaming platform Gala Music. Its design aims to address the high latency and costs associated with traditional blockchains, providing users with a seamless experience. The $GALA token serves as its foundational utility token, primarily used for transaction fees and rewarding founding node operators.

Since its establishment, Gala has gradually become a leading player in the Web3 entertainment sector, collaborating with several well-known companies and individuals, including Universal Pictures, AMC Networks, and Snoop Dogg. These partnerships have not only enhanced GalaChain's visibility but also brought more users and applications to its ecosystem.

The technical foundation of GalaChain is Hyperledger Fabric, a modular architecture that allows customization based on specific needs. Unlike other blockchains, GalaChain uses a deterministic consensus algorithm to ensure transaction finality and accuracy, eliminating the risk of ledger forks. Additionally, GalaChain supports a network of founding nodes, which not only maintain decentralized infrastructure but also earn $GALA token rewards by running nodes.

GalaChain's operation relies on a network of founding nodes, limited to 50,000, where operators support the network by providing computing power. Each founding node earns $GALA tokens as rewards daily. Furthermore, GalaChain allows developers to create custom tokens and implement direct exchanges between tokens through GalaSwap.

Gala was founded in 2018 by Zynga co-founder Eric Schiermeyer, with team members who participated in the development of several popular social games, including "Farmville 2," "Words with Friends," and "Zynga Poker." As a leader in interactive entertainment, Zynga's influence continues in Gala's "Common Ground World." Gala's partner network includes well-known companies such as Universal Pictures' DreamWorks Animation, AMC Networks, and NBCUniversal, as well as legendary game developers Peter Molyneux and Will Wright, and music industry figures like Snoop Dogg and Ice Cube.

Looking ahead, GalaChain will continue to expand its ecosystem. In 2024, new SDKs and creator toolkits will be launched to support a broader range of developers and innovators. Additionally, GalaChain plans to establish cross-chain bridges with other blockchain ecosystems to enhance interoperability. These developments will further solidify GalaChain's leadership position in the Web3 entertainment sector and drive its technology into other industries.

4. Potential Catalysts

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, stated at the Token2049 conference that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle today. He believes that as long as the Fed's rate cuts lead to U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4%, Ethereum, which offers about 4% staking yield, will become more attractive, triggering a new bull market for Ethereum.

Hayes also predicts that with the Fed's rate cuts, new winners and losers will emerge in the cryptocurrency market. Tokens with yields exceeding U.S. Treasury yields, such as ENA, ETH, ETHFI, and PENDLE, will become winners, while tokens based on real estate mortgages, such as ONDO, will become losers.

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Hotspots

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains today. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH due to reduced income and whale exits have been significant, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

Sui is a decentralized Layer 1 blockchain developed by Mysten Labs, capable of providing excellent transaction speeds at low costs. The Sui mainnet launched on May 3, 2023, and its token $SUI briefly surged to $2, with an increase of up to 2000%.

In the recent sluggish cryptocurrency market, $SUI has performed well, actively rolling out various updates, including the Sui Bridge testnet, incentive programs, and the new consensus algorithm Mysticeti. It also announced plans to introduce $USDC into its ecosystem to support dollar-backed digital applications in DeFi, gaming, and e-commerce. Additionally, Grayscale launched the Sui Trust Fund on August 7, further boosting Sui's popularity.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. WOJAK (@wojakcoineth /X)

$WOJAK is a meme-based cryptocurrency named after the popular Wojak meme on the internet, often used to express various emotions and experiences. This token has rapidly risen in recent years, attracting significant attention from investors.

2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)

$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain, aimed at combining meme culture with a community-driven economic model. The design of $michi is inspired by a cute cat image, aiming to attract a broad user base, especially meme culture enthusiasts.

Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. COW (@CoWSwap /X)

The core of CoW Protocol lies in its unique trading mechanism known as "Coincidence of Wants" (CoWs). This mechanism aggregates multiple trades and finds the best solution through batch auctions, providing better prices than traditional decentralized exchanges. Users only need to sign their intent to swap rather than executing trades directly, reducing execution risks and costs.

2. degod (@DeGodsNFT /X)

DeGods is a deflationary NFT project based on the Solana blockchain, consisting of 10,000 unique DeGods, aimed at enhancing its value through art and community participation. The project combines themes of mythology and death, creating visually striking digital artworks.