Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/13)

2024-10-10 10:05:13

Collection

The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau released the latest CPI data yesterday, showing that the consumer price index growth rate in August fell to 2.5%, below the expected 2.6% and lower than July's 2.9%. This marks the fifth consecutive month of slowdown and is the lowest level since March 2021. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate for August, excluding food and energy prices, is 3.2%, matching both the expected value and the previous value. However, the month-on-month core CPI growth rate is slightly higher than expected at 0.3%, causing the month-on-month core CPI data to slightly exceed expectations, which reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this year. After the CPI data was released, the market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this month has increased from 66% yesterday to 85%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has decreased to 15%.

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Sector:

l CPI Data Mixed Signals

The latest CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday shows that the consumer price index growth rate for August dropped to 2.5%, below the expected 2.6% and lower than July's 2.9%. This marks a slowdown for five consecutive months, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate for August, excluding food and energy prices, is 3.2%, matching both the expected and previous values. However, the month-on-month core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by two basis points this year. Following the release of the CPI data, the market believes the chance of the Fed cutting rates by one basis point this month has risen from 66% to 85%, while the chance of a two basis point cut has decreased to 15%.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Bitcoin ETF Inflows Accelerate

Recent inflows into U.S. BTC and spot Ethereum ETFs indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. A significant investment flow into the BTC ETF occurred on September 10, avoiding consecutive withdrawals. Although the Ethereum ETF faces different issues, it also halted five days of outflows. These inflows come at a time when institutions are taking a wait-and-see approach to crypto assets, and despite BTC attracting more funds, Ethereum seems to be losing its dominance.

Additionally, global statistics on crypto asset ownership paint a complex picture for future market trends. Data shows that on September 10, the spot BTC ETF attracted nearly $117 million, a 400% increase from the previous day's $37.29 million.

Interestingly, these figures align with the "2024 Global Crypto Asset Status Research Report" released by Gemini. The survey indicates that the crypto asset ownership rate in France surged from 16% to 18%, while the rates in the U.S. and the U.K. are 21% and 18%, respectively. In contrast, Singapore's ownership rate slightly declined from 30% to 26%.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Sector:

l Buffett's "Right-Hand Man" Sells Off Berkshire Stock! Major Deputy Ajit Jain Reduces Berkshire A Holdings by Over Half

Reports on Thursday revealed that Ajit Jain, Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations at Berkshire Hathaway, sold $139 million worth of Berkshire Class A shares, reducing his holdings by more than half. According to regulatory filings, Ajit Jain sold 200 shares of Berkshire Class A stock at approximately $695,418 per share. This sale means he still holds a total of 166 shares of Berkshire Class A stock, of which he personally owns 61 shares.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l BA Labs Proposes Sky to Gradually Vote to Divest wBTC Collateral Exposure

On September 13, news emerged that according to a governance article released on Thursday, MakerDAO's rebranded Sky will vote to completely remove wBTC from its ecosystem, which could represent a significant development for DeFi, as the platform has $200 million in wBTC collateral loans. BA Labs, a prominent player in Sky protocol governance, previously proposed reducing investment in wBTC due to perceived risks associated with Tron founder Justin Sun's involvement as a custodian of the underlying assets. On Thursday, BA Labs proposed a five-step gradual divestment of all wBTC collateral exposure, starting on September 26. Each step will be decided by vote. "We found that legal due diligence could not provide sufficient assurance," BA Labs stated in its proposal.

Donald Trump announced that his cryptocurrency project, World Liberty Financial, will officially launch on September 16. He stated on his official X account that the project aims to "embrace the future of cryptocurrency" and "discard outdated large banks." Trump has actively embraced cryptocurrency during his campaign and promised that if re-elected, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and prevent the U.S. from selling 213,000 bitcoins. The project will be based on the decentralized finance platform Aave and the Ethereum blockchain, focusing on a "credit account system." Corey Caplan, co-founder of Dolomite, has been appointed as a project advisor, and the project will collaborate with top security experts to ensure user safety. Two days ago, the X accounts of Lara and Tiffany Trump were hacked, posting information about related tokens. Congresswoman Maxine Waters criticized the project.

3. Hot Narratives

Last night, Binance announced the launch of the 58th project on Launchpool, Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), a P2E game built on the Telegram mini-program platform simulating a crypto exchange CEO. From Notcoin (NOT) to Toncoin (TON), DOGS, and now HMSTR, Binance continues to make strides in the Ton ecosystem, reigniting market interest.

Hamster Kombat is a cryptocurrency exchange CEO simulator game built on the Telegram mini-program platform. HMSTR is the native utility token of Hamster Kombat, used for the following functions:

In-game currency: Purchase in-game items (such as character skins), upgrades, and services (such as premium support, community tools, and game developer SDKs).

Exclusive access: Access to limited-time events, team activities, PvP battles, and live events.

As of September 12, 2024, the total supply of HMSTR is 100,000,000,000, with a circulating supply of 64,375,000,000 at launch (approximately 64.38% of the total token supply).

In Hamster Kombat, players control hamsters managing a cryptocurrency exchange that evolves from a startup to a top-tier company, bringing a sense of reality to the crypto community through the game's narrative. The core gameplay of Hamster Kombat revolves around players (as hamsters) acting as the CEO of the exchange. Similar to its predecessor Notcoin, players make game decisions with a simple click, earning tokens through these decisions. These tokens can be used to obtain operational licenses, establish partnerships, and upgrade products, contributing to the exchange's value. Ultimately, the more successful the exchange grows and the better the CEO performs, the greater the opportunity to earn HMSTR tokens. Additionally, Hamster Kombat includes staking and farming elements, allowing players to earn passive income by staking tokens within the game ecosystem.

This game seems to have appeared out of nowhere. In March of this year, it launched on TON (also known as The Open Network), a Web3 ecosystem built on Telegram. The founders of Hamster Kombat are anonymous, claiming to have over 200 million users; they have 11 million followers on Twitter/X and 31 million subscribers on their YouTube account.

4. Potential Catalysts

According to Mars Finance, the UK High Court ruled in a case brought by a fraud victim that the stablecoin USDT is considered property, as the victim's stolen cryptocurrency included USDT. High Court Deputy Judge Richard Farnhill stated, "USDT is a rather unique form of property that does not depend on potential legal rights, can be tracked, and can constitute trust property like other assets."

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains today. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH due to reduced income and whale exits have been significant, the market remains predominantly optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

· ARB

Arbitrum is an Ethereum-based Layer 2 scaling solution designed to improve transaction speed and reduce costs. Since its launch in 2021, Arbitrum has quickly become one of the key infrastructures in the Web3 space. Its technological core is the "Rollup" technology, which bundles a large number of transactions and processes them on the Ethereum main chain, achieving higher transaction throughput and lower latency.

On August 31, 2024, Arbitrum One celebrated its third anniversary, having grown into a giant in the L2 and even Web3 industry over the past three years: its TVL has surpassed $14.75 billion, leading L2 by a wide margin, with over 36 million unique addresses and more than 2,000 ecosystem projects, making it one of the largest and most diverse L2s in many people's eyes. Recently, leading blockchain and token infrastructure platform Paxos announced its expansion to Arbitrum One, with the launch of the project's new feature Stylus on the mainnet, allowing smart contracts to be written in languages such as Rust, C, and C++.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

· Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. CAT(@SimonsCatMeme /X)

Simon's Cat Token ($CAT) is an emerging meme token based on the popular animated brand "Simon's Cat." The token was officially launched on the BNB chain on August 8, 2024, aiming to leverage the brand's extensive influence on social media to attract the attention of cat lovers and cryptocurrency investors.

2. HARAMBE(@harambeonsolana /X)

$HARAMBE is a MEME token based on the famous internet gorilla Harambe. The goal of this token is to commemorate Harambe through social media promotion and user participation, contributing to related charitable causes.

· Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. NMT(@NetmindAi /X)

NetMind.AI is a decentralized AI computing platform aimed at providing an open and collaborative AI ecosystem by integrating Web3 technology. The core product of the project is NetMind Power, a distributed computing platform that utilizes idle GPU resources globally, enabling individuals and small businesses to access powerful AI computing capabilities at low costs.

2. MUMU(@mumu_bull /X)

Mumu The Bull ($MUMU) is a meme coin project based on the Solana blockchain, inspired by a bull named Mumu. Mumu's character is set to battle against Bobo the bear, who represents bearish market sentiment, striving to reclaim control of market sentiment. Mumu's goal is to restore bullish sentiment in the market and resist the bearish trend symbolized by Bobo.