Cryptocurrency Survival Guide: Harvest in Bear Markets, Trade in Bull Markets

Author: Yuyue

My entry point into the circle was also through airdrops, but the current airdrop model has changed significantly. As a crypto practitioner with a verifiable track record in selecting tracks, I will elaborate on what should be done next. This article mainly aims to popularize some core ideas for players with small capital.

"Bear market for harvesting, bull market for trading; golden dogs don’t roll, big hairs don’t roll"

The most fundamental point is: lower expectations.

Whether in the secondary market, primary market, or airdrops, which are similar to a primary and a half farming, one should recognize that the crypto industry has entered a bear market in terms of valuation. I have mentioned many times about "returning to common sense." In a lukewarm market, excessive emotional premiums will be deflated, leading to a return to value. If one can lower expectations and not be overly greedy, that is the foundation for continuing to cultivate in a bear market.

Before harvesting, the most important thing to understand is: what is the essence of harvesting?

• Harvesting is a channel for participating in a primary and a half market, and its essence is somewhat similar to primary investment;
• Airdrops, in the current version, are marketing tools used by project parties to acquire customers and improve data;
• Harvesting is not necessarily a guaranteed return; it is also a form of investment, and there is no commitment of returns from the project parties.

Based on the above three points, you will discover one thing: the main group of primary investments in this round—most VCs are actually not making money at all, and the rule of primary investment is to invest in a bear market and reap in a bull market.

In recent years, almost all significant harvests in airdrop history have come from bear markets, such as APT and ARB, which emerged when the secondary market was not performing well. The capital and time costs for retail investors were not that high, especially for Aptos and even the testnet A8 level harvests.

However, the second half of last year was basically considered a bull market. Investing in the primary market during a bull market inevitably increases the likelihood of being counter-harvested. If one understands that the essence of harvesting is a form of primary investment without a contract, one will realize that being counter-harvested might just be the norm.

Looking back at the timeline of Nillion, this project raised funds in Q3 last year and started activities mainly for retail participation, coinciding with the two most active quarters in the secondary market last year. Now, during the TGE, it is again the worst time in the secondary environment… Essentially, this is a timing issue.

So, what should we do now?

Watch more, act less

In a bear market, there are often unexpected opportunities, such as the $COCORO from a couple of days ago, which can be considered a significant harvest. Slowing down the pace can also yield profits; it just depends on how to judge the level of the narrative.

On the basis of watching more and acting less, do not be overly greedy; earning several thousand U in one go is already quite appealing.

Harvesting and cultivating can still be done, just don’t expand and increase capital投入

If necessary, one can engage in more daily harvesting work. If expectations can be lowered, there are still plenty of easy daily tasks in crypto, such as the IDO tasks from Binance Wallet, OKX's Cryptopedia activities, and Bybit's Solayer & Launchpool activities. These are basically guaranteed airdrops; it’s just that people usually overlook this small amount of money, which is a matter of expectation.

Moreover, while harvesting, thinking and reviewing can also enhance industry knowledge, rather than just treating it as a simple task. For example, how to improve one's efficiency? The process of programmatically collecting information? How to organize and plan projects and knowledge bases? These are all ways to optimize.

Self-improvement

For those who can read, go read a book, especially to improve learning ability. Learning a language or enhancing education can have very practical benefits.

Fitness creates a solid physical foundation for the bull market.

Believe that golden dogs don’t roll, big hairs don’t roll. Try to find areas that still have dividends, rather than just following what others do.