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Analysis: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies, and the options market still bets on the $100,000 target by the end of June

2025-03-21 18:41:46

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market experienced a brief euphoria following the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, only to fall back into profit-taking. Bitcoin retreated from a high of $86,000 to below $84,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%, while Ethereum fell below the psychological level of $2,000. Despite the overall pressure on the market, options traders remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of June rising from 20% to nearly 30% within 24 hours.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and announced a reduction in quantitative tightening (QT) in April, interpreted as a signal of de facto easing, which pushed Bitcoin to briefly surpass $85,000. BNB rose 8% during the week, showing strength against the trend, while XRP's weekly increase narrowed to 4.8%. The options market showed divergence, with Ethereum call options accounting for 60%, indicating a rise in bottom-fishing sentiment; 34% of Bitcoin options volume was used for downside protection, intensifying the long-short battle. After a brief euphoria, the market returned to rationality, with $80,000 becoming a key short-term support level for Bitcoin, focusing the new round of long-short contention. The optimistic expectations in the options market and the cautious sentiment in the spot market create a delicate balance, with a breakout from the moving average pressure potentially becoming the key to a trend reversal.

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