TL;DR

• On the macro front, in March 2025, the U.S. exhibited characteristics of marginal inflation retreat, resilient employment, but increasing policy divergence, with core inflation pressures partially alleviated and a moderate cooling in the labor market. The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, compounded by ongoing tariff disturbances that continued to elevate market uncertainty. In terms of policy and market dynamics, the Fed emphasized a "data-driven" approach to balance inflation stickiness with interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased volatility in capital markets, with U.S. stocks under pressure and subsequent trends highly dependent on the effectiveness of tariff policy implementation and the sustainability of inflation retreat.

• The overall trading volume in the crypto market continued to decline, with daily trading volume down 12%, market activity weakened, and market capitalization failed to form a clear breakout direction. Popular tokens launched in March were mainly focused on ecological projects and BSC meme tokens, with Mubarak surging due to mentions by CZ on Twitter, driving sustained interest in BSC memes.

• In March, both BTC and ETH ETFs experienced outflows, with BTC ETF outflows amounting to $692 million and ETH ETF outflows totaling $410 million. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market continued to grow, with total inflows of approximately $2.67 billion in March, primarily driven by strong growth in USDC.

• BTC rose 4.25% last week, welcoming a net inflow of $744 million into the U.S. spot BTC ETF, indicating a rebound in bullish sentiment, but facing strong resistance at the 50-day moving average. Other crypto assets like ETH and Solana also showed signs of rebound; if they break through key resistance levels, further gains are expected; otherwise, bears may regain market dominance.

• The Trump administration announced the inclusion of Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves, marking a historic turning point in cryptocurrency regulation and potentially triggering global adjustments in crypto policy. Meanwhile, Binance has driven the continuous growth of the BNB ecosystem and MEME projects through strong marketing campaigns and innovative features, attracting significant attention from users and investors. Additionally, Trump-related tokens such as SOL, XRP, and ADA may become focal points for future speculation, especially around key nodes related to ETF approvals, potentially causing market volatility.

1. Macroeconomic Perspective

In March 2025, the U.S. macroeconomic landscape presented a complex pattern of "inflation easing, employment resilience, widening policy divergence, and ongoing tariff disturbances." Although core inflation showed signs of cooling, overall price levels remained high. The labor market remained robust, with job growth slightly slowing but not showing signs of fatigue. The Federal Reserve faced more complex policy choices—balancing the need to monitor easing financial conditions while guarding against the risk of inflation rising again. At the same time, fluctuations in tariff policy continued to disturb market sentiment. Against this backdrop, capital markets experienced emotional volatility, and uncertainty regarding economic prospects remained high, with the market highly sensitive to key data and the implementation of tariff policies in the coming months.

1. Monetary Policy

February CPI data showed a cooling in inflation, with a year-on-year decline to 2.8% (previous value 3.0%, market expectation 2.9%) and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (below the expected 0.3% and last month's 0.5%), marking the lowest growth rate in nearly three months and alleviating market concerns about sustained inflation. Core CPI also slightly decreased to 3.1%, indicating some relief in service price pressures.

Although the cooling inflation provides room for policy, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious tone. The March FOMC meeting minutes indicated that members still had doubts about the "sustainability" of inflation retreat, emphasizing that "actions should not be taken prematurely until clearer evidence shows inflation will return to the 2% target." Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut gradually advanced to June, but the Fed still adhered to a "data-driven" stance, with future inflation and employment data remaining central to decision-making.

2. Labor Market

The labor market continued to show resilience. In February, 151,000 new jobs were added, slightly below market expectations but higher than the adjusted 125,000 in January, indicating a steady overall employment situation. Compared to an average monthly increase of 168,000 over the past 12 months, February data showed a moderate cooling in the labor market, reflecting a marginal slowdown in recent economic growth.

3. Inflation

February CPI data was broadly below expectations, with year-on-year growth dropping to 2.8% and core CPI at 3.1%, the lowest in nearly four years. Despite the overall retreat in inflation, housing costs rose by 0.3%, accounting for nearly half of the CPI increase for the month, still supporting inflation. Compared to last month's growth of 0.4%, this has slowed, indicating that some price pressures are dissipating. The decline in energy and transportation costs was the main driver of the core CPI decrease.

Overall, the inflation data was weaker than expected, providing breathing room for both the market and the Federal Reserve, and leaving room to address potential inflation rebounds triggered by tariffs. Although the downward trend is clear, inflation remains "sticky," and the path to rate cuts should not be taken lightly.

4. Capital Markets

Since March, the U.S. stock market has experienced emotional fluctuations. Following the release of inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 briefly surged but then retraced gains, with overall rebounds lacking strength. As of March 28, the S&P 500 had fallen 4.4% for the month, and the Nasdaq was down 5.5%. Large tech stocks showed significant pullbacks. Changes in tariff policy continued to disturb market sentiment.

Summary

Overall, the U.S. economy still shows some resilience in the short term, but the nonlinear shock risks under limited policy space need to be monitored. The Federal Reserve's balancing act between combating inflation and stabilizing growth is becoming increasingly delicate, and the market should prepare for potential "volatility repricing." If the actual situation post-tariff policy implementation in early April is slightly better than expected, the U.S. stock market may see marginal recovery.

2. Overview of the Crypto Market

Cryptocurrency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of March 27, the overall daily trading volume in the crypto market showed a declining trend, with market activity continuing to weaken. The current average daily trading volume is $124.5 billion, down 12% from the previous period. A brief inflow of funds was observed on March 20, driving a rebound in trading volume, but it failed to form sustained growth momentum, and market trading volume remained low thereafter.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth

According to CoinGecko data, as of March 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $2.94 trillion, down 4.85% from the previous month. Among them, BTC's market share is 60.8%, and ETH's market share is 8.5%, with ETH's market share continuing to decline. Overall, market capitalization fluctuated between $2.7 trillion and $3.2 trillion, failing to form a clear breakout direction. Additionally, the daily fluctuations in market capitalization mostly ranged between 1% and 3%, with market sentiment remaining cautious.

New Popular Tokens Launched in March

Among the popular tokens launched in March, market attention focused on ecological projects and BSC memes. Mubarak surged due to multiple mentions by CZ on Twitter, reigniting interest in BSC memes, which continued to revolve around the CZ concept or relied on interactions between CZ and his wife to gain market attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

3.1 Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows

March BTC ETF Outflow - $692 million

In March, BTC's price saw a slight rebound. As of March 26, BTC's price increased from $84,373 at the beginning of the month to $87,460, a growth of approximately 3.6%. In March, BTC ETF funds showed an outflow, with total outflows around -$692 million.

March ETH ETF Outflow - $410 million

In March, Ethereum's price decline trend continued. As of March 26, ETH's price fell from $2,237 at the beginning of the month to $2,067, a drop of -7.5%. In March, ETH ETF funds showed an outflow, with total outflows around -$410 million.

3.2 Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

March Stablecoin Inflows Approximately $2.67 billion - Mainly from USDC

In March, although the macro and cryptocurrency markets remained sluggish, the stablecoin market continued its strong growth momentum. Among them, USDC became the main driver of growth this month, with circulation increasing by approximately $3.41 billion, accounting for a significant share of the stablecoin market expansion. In contrast, USDT's circulation decreased, with a reduction of $597 million.

4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis

Last week, Bitcoin rose 4.25%, closing above $86,000, with bulls extending the rebound momentum to above $88,700 on March 24. Buyers seem to be returning to the market. According to SoSoValue data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF achieved a net inflow of $744 million last week after five consecutive weeks of outflows.

The 20-day moving average is flattening, and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen to positive territory, indicating that bulls are temporarily in control. This round of rebound is expected to encounter strong resistance at the 50-day moving average ($90,290). If the price falls back from the 50-day moving average but finds support at the 20-day moving average, it would signal a positive outlook, with the potential to challenge $95,000 and further explore $100,000. Conversely, if the price falls back from the 50-day moving average and breaks below the 20-day moving average, it would indicate that bears are still active at high levels. A drop below $83,000 could see the BTC/USDT trading pair test $80,000.

4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis

Ethereum bulls are once again attempting to push the price above the 20-day moving average ($2,057) and the key breakout point of $2,111. If successful, it would indicate that the market has negated the bearish trend below $2,111, and the ETH/USDT trading pair may target the 50-day moving average ($2,356) and further challenge $2,550.

Bears have little time left. To maintain their advantage, they must defend the $2,111 support level and quickly push the price below $1,750 to restart the downward trend and test the $1,550 support level.

4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis

On March 24, Solana broke above the 20-day moving average ($135), indicating that bulls are attempting a counterattack. If the price can stay above the 20-day moving average, the SOL/USDT trading pair may rise to the 50-day moving average ($158). Bears will strive to obstruct the rebound at the 50-day moving average, but if bulls break through this resistance, it could further soar to $180, thereby reactivating the significant fluctuation range of $110-$260.

Conversely, if the price falls back from the current level or the 50-day moving average, it would indicate that bears are still selling at highs. Only by pushing the price below the $120-$110 support zone can bears initiate a new round of decline.

5. Hot Events This Month

5.1 U.S. Includes Bitcoin in National Strategic Reserves

In March 2025, the Trump administration pushed for significant changes in the cryptocurrency sector, announcing the inclusion of Bitcoin (BTC) in the U.S. national strategic reserves and signing the "Digital Asset Executive Order," establishing a digital asset working group in response to the Biden administration's stringent regulatory policies, aiming to make the U.S. the "global cryptocurrency capital." This plan sparked a strong market reaction, with Bitcoin surpassing $95,000. Subsequently, Trump announced that 200,000 Bitcoins confiscated by the federal government would be managed as strategic reserves by the Treasury, with a promise never to sell them. However, the White House cryptocurrency summit held on March 7 failed to release substantial policies, leading to market disappointment and a 3% drop in Bitcoin prices. Although the U.S. has not directly purchased Bitcoin in the short term, Trump's policy marks a historic turning point in U.S. crypto regulation, promoting the legitimization of crypto assets as financial instruments and prompting other countries like Japan, Russia, and China to reassess their cryptocurrency reserve strategies. Trump's actions may trigger global adjustments in crypto policy and have profound impacts on the geopolitical landscape.

5.2 BNB Ecosystem MEME Trend Continues

In March 2025, Binance founder CZ and He Yi once again drove rapid growth in the BNB ecosystem through high-traffic, strong narrative marketing campaigns. The event began with Abu Dhabi-based tech investment firm MGX investing $2 billion in Binance, setting a record for the largest single investment in the crypto industry to date. Subsequently, Binance's official account on X posted a tweet featuring a cartoon character wearing a Middle Eastern-style headscarf, with CZ retweeting it with the caption "Mubarak." The term "Mubarak" carries deep cultural and religious significance in Arabic, widely used in names, holiday greetings, and daily expressions, conveying blessings and good wishes. CZ's interactions and the launch of Binance contracts also propelled the market capitalization of the Mubarak token to over $220 million. In the following days, CZ and He Yi further drove multiple BNB chain MEME projects through high-frequency interactions and retweets of user-generated content about Binance. For example, the Binance Chinese X account mentioned Palu in its organizational chart, and after interaction with He Yi, the Palu token's market capitalization briefly exceeded $70 million. The content of CZ and He Yi's tweets shifted significantly from personal expression to systematic market guidance, with each tweet becoming an important barometer of market sentiment.

Additionally, Binance continued to generate market heat by launching new features and activities. The Binance Alpha 2.0 feature allows users to purchase Binance Alpha projects directly through the Binance app with zero fees, lowering the barrier for user participation in BNB MEME trading and optimizing the trading experience. The exclusive IEO event of the Binance Web3 wallet and PancakeSwap attracted users to invest funds into the Binance wallet, thus driving on-chain asset inflow. The community voting mechanism for listing and delisting tokens on Binance attracted user attention by granting them a certain degree of decision-making participation.

6. Outlook for Next Month

6.1 Progress on Bitcoin Reserve Bills in U.S. States

Since President Trump signed the Bitcoin bill, U.S. states have made significant progress in promoting Bitcoin-related legislation. As of March 2025, over 20 states have proposed or are reviewing Bitcoin reserve bills, involving public fund allocation, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks. The passage of these bills will enable states to invest a portion of public funds in Bitcoin and other digital assets, with total investments expected to exceed $23 billion. On March 6, the Texas Senate passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill" with a vote of 25 to 5. This bill still needs to pass the House and be signed by the governor to become law. On March 25, the Oklahoma House passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill" with a vote of 77 to 15, allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin or digital assets with a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion, making Oklahoma the fourth state to pass such a bill after Texas, Arizona, and Utah. However, not all states' Bitcoin reserve bills have passed smoothly. For example, related bills in Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota were rejected due to concerns about the compatibility of digital assets with traditional financial systems. Additionally, the governor's stance has a significant impact on the passage of the bills.

Overall, Trump's signing of the Bitcoin bill provides policy support and a demonstration effect for states, stimulating state legislative bodies to actively promote Bitcoin reserve bills. However, the passage of the bills remains influenced by factors such as the political environment, fiscal conditions, and public opinion in each state. As more states review and vote on Bitcoin reserve bills, it is expected that more states will join the ranks of Bitcoin reserves, further promoting growth and development in the digital asset field in the U.S.

6.2 Speculation Expectations for Trump-related Tokens like SOL, XRP, and ADA

Trump-related crypto assets can be mainly divided into two categories: U.S. strategic reserve assets and WLFI (World Liberty Financial) associated assets. U.S. strategic reserve assets are projects personally supported by Trump to be included in national asset reserves, carrying high political symbolism. WLFI is a DeFi project supported by Trump and his family, holding a large number of altcoins and planning to launch WLFI asset reserves. Currently, tokens like SOL, XRP, and ADA may become focal points of attention during Trump's term, potentially attracting interest through continuous speculation and event-driven momentum, especially around key nodes related to ETF approvals.

Assets related to WLFI, such as TRX, ONDO, MOVE, ENA, LINK, and AAVE, have smaller market capitalizations and exhibit high volatility, indicating a high degree of speculation. The dynamic holdings of WLFI often trigger significant price fluctuations in these tokens, making their further development a potential focus of the market in the future.