Investing in the future social rule makers

Another video I heard over the weekend was a summary by a blogger of Peter Thiel's recent interview, which left me very shocked.

Regarding Peter Thiel, I mentioned him briefly in a previous article; he is a key figure behind the current Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, who has supported and promoted him to reach his current position of power.

A few years ago, I read his book "Zero to One."

In my impression, he is an invisible mogul in Silicon Valley, quietly influencing American politics and the tech industry with his immense wealth.

In the summary of this interview video, the author outlined several quite "striking" viewpoints of Peter Thiel.

According to Thiel, apart from innovations in the digital world like computers and smartphones, technological innovation in the real world has almost completely stagnated over the past few decades—humans still cannot cure cancer, and extending lifespan has become increasingly difficult…

One could say we are using 21st-century smartphones while still riding 19th-century subways.

What are the consequences of this technological stagnation in the real world?

For both individuals and companies, it results in endless competition and zero-sum games, where one person's gain is another person's loss. Everyone is fighting desperately for that limited resource.

Therefore, the various online bullying, hostility, and escalating conflicts in the virtual world, in his view, are not ideological disputes but rather a way to direct and vent all the anxiety caused by stagnation and competition onto a specific group or individual, achieving temporary peace and relief through their sacrifice.

The ultimate outcomes of this situation can only be two:

One is the complete collapse of the existing order, leading to chaos and disorder, where everyone loses.

The other, which he sees as more dangerous, is the emergence of a single global state that tells everyone: elsewhere is chaotic and disordered, but you need not fear; come to me, listen to me, and I will provide you with safety and order.

But what you must give up is your freedom.

Faced with this dilemma, Peter Thiel's solution is to bet his wealth on a gamble to find a third way before these two outcomes arrive.

The core of this third way is to find a form of constraint.

This constraint manifests politically as a complete resistance to globalization, preventing the emergence of a state that threatens the United States. In action, it means fully supporting anti-establishment figures like Pence who share his views, helping them gain power to counter this potential state.

This is to resist the arrival of the second outcome.

This constraint in technology is expressed through strong support for AI. He was one of the earliest investors in OpenAI and is also one of the founders of Palantir. His goal is to use AI to create this order and prevent ultimate chaos and disorder from occurring.

Whether Peter Thiel's views are correct is not the point I want to discuss; what I want to share is that his words and actions completely subverted my previous impression of Silicon Valley venture capital.

Previously, I always thought:

Silicon Valley venture capitalists consider what the business model of a company is when investing. Will this business model become popular in the future? Who are the potential customers? What kind of returns will it bring?

Then, they estimate how large the company's future market value will be and see what cost is involved in investing now to achieve potential returns.

But Peter Thiel has clearly transcended this level entirely.

The primary factor he considers when investing in certain companies is no longer whether the investment target aligns with future trends, but whether the investment target can establish the rules of future society.

I also recalled an investment idea mentioned by Dan Bin: looking for companies that could change the world.

Peter Thiel's thinking goes even further than this idea; the companies he invests in not only have the potential to change the world but also aim to change the world according to their ideals.

In terms of ambition, Peter Thiel far surpasses them.

This investment approach of Peter Thiel carries higher risks than traditional venture capital, but if such companies succeed, the returns they bring to investors will be incomparable to traditional venture capital, as the companies he invests in will control the future operation of the world according to his vision.

Moreover, in my view, the "constraint" that Thiel envisions, besides AI, is another more effective tool: encryption technology.

And Peter Thiel has not missed out on the feast of encryption technology. Like Cathie Wood, he began purchasing Bitcoin as early as 2015. Additionally, his Founders Fund is also investing in various companies within the crypto ecosystem.

From an investment perspective, if one is willing to take greater risks and invest in the way Thiel seeks "constraints," the crypto world goes without saying; another battlefield must include the U.S. stock market—this is long-term investing that completely ignores short-term fluctuations over a decade. In such investments, companies in the U.S. stock market that are likely to become future rule-makers of society are very likely to be the biggest potential stocks.