The IC0 spectacle of Pump.fun: A tug-of-war filled with chaos, skepticism, and controversy

Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor: TB, ChainCatcher

The public sale of Pump.fun is undoubtedly a top topic in the recent crypto space.

After three delays, it successfully chose a great time to launch its token when Bitcoin broke new highs. In just 12 minutes, it raised $500 million, with a valuation of $4 billion, making it the third largest ICO in history.

Amidst the hype, doubts have followed closely, and the drama of Pump.fun is captivating. The upcoming launch will truly unveil the beginning of this tug-of-war.

The Journey of Pump.fun's Token Launch: Chaos, Controversy, and Criticism

The journey of Pump.fun's token launch has been filled with chaos, controversy, and criticism, from the initial rumors of the token issuance to the public offering.

Its co-founder Alon Cohen has publicly denied multiple times that they would issue tokens. In April this year, he even "debunked" on social media: "Don't expect me, Pump.fun, or any employees to issue tokens." Ironically, Alon once stated: "The only benefit of a presale is that the money goes directly into your pocket. Every presale is a scam."

Now, launching a presale himself, every word has become a "slap in the face" quote.

Source: AB Kuai.Dong

The rhythm of the sale has also been quite dramatic, with three delays, each hitting the pulse of emotions. According to crypto KOLs, the first delay occurred on January 25, followed by a drop of over 18% in SOL within the next week; the second delay was on February 15, after which SOL saw a maximum drop of 52%; the third delay fell on June 20, the night when the situation in the Middle East escalated.

On July 7, Gate briefly launched the token sale page for Pump.fun before quickly taking it down, sparking a lot of speculation. On July 9, Pump.fun officially announced the public sale. Since then, more controversy has surged.

As the public sale information was disclosed, market skepticism erupted:

• With a valuation of $4 billion, it was questioned whether the project and market fundamentals could support such a valuation;
• The public sale prohibited participation from users in the U.S. and the U.K., mocked as an "Asia-customized presale";
• The team's past behavior of continuously selling SOL for cash raised high doubts about whether they would "support the price," speculating that the team would take advantage of the situation to "exit liquidity."

On the day of the sale, chaos reigned. Users who successfully participated through the official website completed their subscriptions smoothly, while most users who rushed to buy through CEX were left empty-handed, leading to widespread complaints. Thus, this already controversial PUMP public sale added layers of skepticism regarding the technical stability and public relations capabilities of CEX.

Here are the various channels' participation situations compiled by crypto KOL Yuyue:

Crypto KOL AB Kuai.Dong revealed that multiple sources indicated that Pump.fun had let down the fundraising from exchanges, leading to failures across six exchanges. Additionally, Pump.fun had previously promised to allocate 15% of the token supply for presale, but the actual issuance was quietly cut by 2.5%, with no explanation from the project team.

Pump.fun ICO Performance

In this sale, 89.7% of purchases were made through the official website, while only 10.3% were made through CEX. There were 10,145 successful buyers on the website. Here is the purchasing scale of website buyers:

Source: Dune

The majority of users who subscribed for under $1,000 numbered 5,758. However, the concentration of funds was extremely high, with the top 340 addresses buying over $300 million, accounting for 60%, with an average investment of about $44,000.

Community user @splinter0n monitored data showing that only 2 people participated in the presale on Kraken, 15 on Gate, and 120 on Kucoin. Although these data are difficult to verify completely, they reflect the embarrassing situation where CEX new buyers were almost "wiped out."

Currently, the six CEXs participating in the PUMP public sale have all received token distributions: Kraken received 7.5 billion, Bitget received 7.5 billion, Gate received 6.4 billion, Bybit received 5 billion, MEXC received 5 billion, and Kucoin received 4.1 billion.

Additionally, on-chain analyst Ai Yi pointed out that Wintermute may be one of the market makers for PUMP. Yesterday, the Pump.fun project team transferred 10 PUMP tokens to multiple addresses for small tests, including addresses previously belonging to Wintermute, and more tokens are expected to flow to market maker addresses in the next couple of days.

In the Lead-Up to the Launch, Market Speculation Intensifies

The Gate page shows that $PUMP will open for trading tonight at 12 o'clock. The pre-market price has reached $0.0062, and the market has entered a highly speculative phase.

Community user @jain_web3 interpreted: Sold out in 12 minutes, creating a strong atmosphere of scarcity. Last night, many users placed short positions for hedging, and when the shorts were squeezed, it favored high pricing at the opening. He further predicted that the next step might be a high opening, with presale users selling at high prices, and many users who missed out buying at high prices due to scarcity effects and high FOMO, with a dense transaction area likely far exceeding $0.004.

Crypto KOL @sky_gpt believes this is a familiar script: "High opening, rapid rise, quick selling, and a continuous decline, trapping 'impatient' users for a second harvest."

On the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket, "What will the FDV of Pump.fun tokens reach one day after launch?" has also become a hot betting topic. Most users predict its FDV will be above $4 billion and below $8 billion, reflecting a high divergence between market enthusiasm and risk.

Pump.fun has pushed the contradictions and FOMO emotions of the crypto market to the extreme with a noisy presale. Tonight, all speculations, controversies, and chips will converge, and the market will ultimately reveal the true direction of this competition.

Recommended Reading:

Was Pump.fun's $1 Billion ICO Dream Ruined by a Last-Minute Account Ban?

Raydium and Pump.fun Imitate Each Other; Can There Be a Winner After the "Breakup"?