Goldman Sachs: Expects the Trump administration to raise the basic tariff rate to 15%

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle expects that the U.S. basic "reciprocal" tariff rate will be raised from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%------this move may exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth.

To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in its "initial observations," Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 core inflation forecast from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%.

Mericle stated that the tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. He added that the tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs has accordingly lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%.