Bitwise CIO: The four-year cycle of cryptocurrency has failed, and the future will continue to thrive steadily

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated on social media that the four-year cycle of cryptocurrency has "failed," and the future will be characterized by "sustained stable prosperity";

• The forces that created the previous four-year cycle are weakening:

1. Halving occurs every four years;
2. Interest rate cycles are positive for cryptocurrency, rather than negative (as seen in 2018 and 2022);
3. The risk of explosions is reduced due to improved regulation and institutionalization of the space;

• Greater forces are operating on a timeline that is not synchronized with the four-year cycle:

1. Asset inflows into ETFs are a 5-10 year trend, starting in 2024;
2. Broader institutional adoption has just begun (ETFs are still being approved on national account platforms, and pension funds and endowments are just beginning to consider cryptocurrencies, etc.);
3. The regulatory process will officially start in January 2025 and will last for several years;
4. Wall Street has just begun to lay out its plans in the cryptocurrency space and will invest billions of dollars over the next few quarters and even years. This started with the passage of the "Genius Act" this month.

Hougan believes that the long-term forces favoring cryptocurrency will overwhelm the classic "four-year cycle" forces, and 2026 will be a good year, more like "sustained stable prosperity" rather than a super cycle.