Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, which is $2.26 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.65%, of which USDT accounts for 61.67%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%.

This week, there was a net outflow of $642.9 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; while there was a net inflow of $155 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.

Market Forecast (August 4 - August 8):

This week, there was a slight increase in the issuance of stablecoins, with continuous net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs, but significant net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and altcoins experienced some corrections. The RSI index is at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear and Greed Index is at 54 (lower than last week).

On August 1, U.S. non-farm payroll data was shocking, with July employment numbers far below expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 77.7%, with expectations for two rate cuts this year, but caution is needed regarding the risk of a market correction in August.

BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test the $112,000 support; if it breaks above $120,000, then look for $125,000.

ETH: Support at $3,500, with an upward target of $4,000.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire the Indian crypto trading platform CoinDCX;

2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine each hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;

3. On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed round financing, led jointly by Bitfinex and Hack VC;

4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sales to create an "all-in-one trading platform";

5. On August 1, Reuters reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Project Crypto initiative aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain capabilities in U.S. financial markets;

6. Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, totaling $5.4 billion, setting a record;

7. The SEC approved an ETF physical redemption mechanism, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares;

8. Trump's tariff policy took effect on August 1, with the market focusing on capital flows in emerging markets.

Macroeconomics

1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of inaction, in line with market expectations;

2. On July 31, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations;

3. On August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May's non-farm payrolls were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000; June's non-farm payrolls were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000;

4. On August 1, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment for July was 73,000, with expectations of 110,000.

ETF

According to statistics, from July 28 to August 1, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion.

The net inflow into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $155 million.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. The Vietnam Blockchain and AI Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from August 9 to 10, 2025;

2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 21 to 22;

3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025;

4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.

Important Events

1. On August 7 at 19:00, the UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;

2. On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in thousands);

3. On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will announce July employment numbers (in thousands);

4. Brazilian legislators are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forth by President Lula, which would impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, eliminating the income tax exemption for small transactions compared to the old tax system, and targeting decentralized finance activities through a temporary measure effective in June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by this date, it will expire.

Token Unlocking

1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, valued at approximately $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply;

2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, valued at approximately $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;

3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, valued at approximately $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;

4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, valued at approximately $6.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply.

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Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.