"Learning from history" is the best lesson for investment

段永平在《投资问答录》中大概说过这样一句话（大意是）：

能从别人的经历中吸取经验教训的都是人才。

不管我们是不是人才，但从他人以及历史中吸取经验教训是非常重要的。

在比较早的文章中，我曾经和大家分享推荐过一部经典的电影《大空头》，我认为它是描述2008年那场旷世金融危机的一部绝佳作品。

但那场危机可能我们的读者中有很多完全没有经历过，因此对它没有切身的感受，即便看了也只是隔靴搔痒。

但中国的房地产危机和房产崩盘则是我们每一位读者都亲身经历并且正在经历的事件。这其中的经验教训值得我们每一位读者（当然也包括我自己）认真地学习和研究。

在读《价值投资经典战例之中国恒大》（以下简称《价投恒大》）这本书之前，我曾经自信地以为自己对这场房产崩盘已经了解得不错了，可在读这本书的过程中我才发现其中很多细节对我的震撼还是大大超过了我此前的理解。

今天和大家分享一下原书中的一些细节（注意：该书出版于2019年）：

下面这部分提问和回答的节选是作者著述时对当时房产发展的思考和理解。

"Has China's housing price become ridiculously high?"

"Existence is reasonable. If housing prices were unreasonably high, how could so many people afford to buy? How could there be such a large transaction volume?"

"Will the Chinese government actively burst the housing price bubble?"

"The Chinese government cannot actively burst the housing price bubble; that would be economic suicide, as a sharp drop in housing prices would lead to the collapse of the Chinese economy."

"Therefore, from the government's perspective, overly aggressive housing price control policies cannot be implemented in the short term."

"What conditions would lead to a housing price collapse?"

"It can be said that the author is optimistic about real estate stocks, betting on the national fortune, betting that the Chinese economy can still develop healthily for another ten to twenty years without a hard landing in the short term."

"Will there be widespread bankruptcies and flight among real estate developers?"

"Real estate is a very good industry. One major advantage is that it has low asset intensity, with low barriers to entry and exit."

"Only a minority of developers go bankrupt and flee; most have transitioned wisely after making money."

下面这段是本书收录的2017年瑞信董事总经理、亚洲区首席经济分析师陶冬在一次公开会议上的演讲：

"If you try to analyze China's real estate with economics, whether you start from supply and demand or inventory, whether you talk about population structure or affordability, the conclusion can only be one: bubble. But if you analyze it with these things, you are wrong."

"In 1990, at the peak of Japan's real estate market, the value of all houses was equivalent to 200% of Japan's GDP; at the peak of the U.S. real estate bubble in 2006, the value of all houses in the U.S. was equivalent to 170% of that year's GDP; we in China have reached 250% of our GDP, which is an unprecedented figure in the history of modern capitalism."

关于作者对房地产行业的思考，由于一些话题的敏感，我只谈一点：作者认为房地产商不可能大面积破产跑路。但现在的状况我们都看到了：包括万科在内的民营房地产巨头企业已经全面塌方。

关于陶冬的言论，有意思的是作为亚洲首席经济分析师他已经从经济学常识判断出了房价泡沫，但他在面对市场的疯狂时也动摇了自己的立场。

所有这些情形都和《大空头》中反映的癫狂一模一样，唯一的区别只是时间、地点、人物不同而已。

历史真的总是在押韵。

然而事实一而再、再而三地证明，无论泡沫多么癫狂，无论国情多么特殊，常识和规律都是不可能违背的。

可存在类似问题的仅仅只是房地产行业吗？

如果常识和规律终将发挥作用，那我们的未来会看到什么？会经历什么？