Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $4.04 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.63%, which is $2.36 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $273.4 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.39%, of which USDT accounts for 60.43%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: OKB with a 7-day increase of 111.49%, AERO with a 7-day increase of 63.84%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 30.44%, SKL with a 7-day increase of 109.68%, and USELESS with a 7-day increase of 52.53%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $547.7 million; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.852 billion.

Market Forecast (August 18 - August 22):

This week, there was a significant issuance of stablecoins, and the U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, with altcoins experiencing significant gains this week. The RSI index is at 44.15, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear and Greed Index is at 59 (lower than last week).

BTC: After breaking through $123,218, it looks towards $125,000; if the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish stance, BTC may pull back, with a support level at $112,000;

ETH: With continuous purchases by listed companies, ETH is expected to challenge $5,000, with a support level at $4,400;

Short-term traders are closely watching key resistance/support levels, while long-term investors are positioning themselves during pullbacks, paying attention to the September interest rate cut decision and the Bitcoin halving cycle window.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On August 12, according to Jupiter data, in the market share ranking of Solana token issuance platforms over the past 24 hours, pump.fun ranked first with 69.7%, Letsbonk ranked second with 15.2%, and BAGS ranked third with 9.14%;

2. On August 12, the Ethereum inventory on CEX fell to its lowest level since July 2016, down 6.7% so far in Q3 this year;

3. On August 12, billionaire Peter Thiel made another move into Ethereum. According to the latest SEC filings, Peter Thiel and his investment team acquired a 7.5% stake in the Ethereum treasury reserve company ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.);

4. On August 13, according to 8Marketcap data, as ETH briefly broke through $4,600, its market cap temporarily reported at $556 billion, surpassing Netflix to rank 25th globally in asset market cap;

5. On August 13, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) announced plans to increase its financing scale by $20 billion to increase its holdings of ETH;

6. On August 12, Aave announced that the active borrowing amount exceeded $25 billion, setting a new historical high;

7. On August 14, according to rockflow data, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish (BLSH) saw its U.S. stock debut rise by 83.78%, closing at $68, with a market cap of $9.94 billion and a trading volume of $5.176 billion, resulting in a turnover rate of 185.45%;

8. On August 14, Bitcoin briefly broke through $124,000, setting a new historical high, reaching a peak of $124,051, currently quoted at $123,930, with a 24-hour increase of 3.29%;

9. On August 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that (regarding cryptocurrency reserves) they would not purchase but would use confiscated assets.

Macroeconomics

1. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate rose further to 3.1%, a five-month high, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, up from the previous value of 2.90%;

2. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, expected at 2.80%, unchanged from the previous month, slightly below expectations;

3. On August 14, after the release of the U.S. July PPI data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September slightly decreased to 92.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate remained at 7.5%;

4. On August 14, for the week ending August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 224,000, expected at 228,000, with the previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.

ETF

According to statistics, from August 11 to August 15, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $547.7 million; as of August 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.758 billion, currently holding $23.151 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $88.6 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $153.043 billion.

The net inflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $2.852 billion.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;

2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26 in Tokyo, Japan;

3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Important Events

1. On August 20 at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision;

2. On August 21 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 (in ten thousand);

3. On August 22 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Token Unlocking

1. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on August 17, valued at approximately $11.22 million, accounting for 3.61% of the circulating supply;

2. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on August 18, valued at approximately $91.4 million, accounting for 2.08% of the circulating supply;

3. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.72 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $55.53 million, accounting for 8.53% of the circulating supply;

4. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 23.35 million tokens on August 20, valued at approximately $25.22 million, accounting for 8.82% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also interact with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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