4E: ETH technical outlook expects a rebound, with macro factors and market sentiment intertwining between bullish and bearish

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E observations, Tom Lee's team analyst Mark Newton pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has a good risk-reward ratio around $4300. If the bullish trend continues, ETH is expected to rebound from this level, break through $5100, and climb towards the $5400-5450 range, which has significant technical implications. Newton accurately predicted last week that ETH would find support around $4070.

On-chain trader sentiment remains aggressive. Lookonchain monitoring shows that "Maji Brother" has been continuously increasing long positions in ETH, BTC, HYPE, YZY, and PUMP during the market downturn, with an overall unrealized loss of nearly $8 million. Meanwhile, BiyaPay analysts pointed out that after ETH reached a historical high of $4956, trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure and a risk of dropping to $4000.

On the macro front, political risks in the U.S. have intensified. Trump's signing of an executive order to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and significant gains in non-U.S. currencies and gold. Both CICC and UBS have warned that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole should not be viewed as the starting point for a series of easing measures, and the politicization of the Federal Reserve may raise real borrowing costs.

Institutions remain bullish on the long-term logic of ETH. Fidelity's latest report states that Ethereum has the potential to become the core of global collaboration, but it still needs to address the challenges of value capture posed by competing chains and modularization.

4E reminds investors: the technical outlook for ETH and institutional expectations are positive, but short-term volatility is increasing, coupled with macro and policy uncertainties. Investors are advised to pay attention to support and resistance levels and manage their position rhythm.