Tom Lee: The Federal Reserve is reopening a moderate rate-cutting cycle after a long pause

ChainCatcher news, in the coming weeks, the U.S. stock market will enter a critical period that will determine whether the latest round of rebounds can continue. Employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released over the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors.

The current stock market seems to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 index has just recorded its weakest monthly gain since March, while September has historically been its worst-performing month. Meanwhile, market volatility has nearly disappeared. The VIX, or fear index, has only touched the key level of 20 once since the end of June.

"It is correct for investors to remain cautious in September," said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "The Federal Reserve, after a long pause, is reopening a moderate rate-cutting cycle, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions." This long-term bullish analyst expects the S&P 500 to decline by 5% to 10% this fall, before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 points.