4E: Weak non-farm payroll expectations trigger interest rate cut speculation, WLFI boosts Trump's family wealth surge

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E observations, analyst Lee Hardman stated that if the U.S. non-farm data this Friday is significantly weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, putting pressure on the dollar. Currently, the market is generally betting on a 25 basis point cut, but the cumulative rate cut by September next year may exceed 100 basis points. CICC predicts that the U.S. ten-year Treasury yield may rise to 4.8% within the year, and future QE or regulatory easing may passively suppress long-term rates, while the inflation center will continue to rise.

In terms of legislation, the U.S. Senate plans to review the "2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act" at the end of September. This bill will clarify the SEC's role in the cryptocurrency market and may become a key step in reshaping the regulatory landscape.

Regarding capital flows, South Korean investors significantly sold off $657 million in Tesla stocks in August, shifting towards high-volatility assets like Ethereum treasury Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), with a net inflow of $253 million. Bank of America data shows that the current institutional allocation to crypto is only 0.3%, about one-seventh of the allocation to gold.

In the token sector, WLFI's launch on its first day increased the Trump family's net worth by approximately $5 billion. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated that the probability of XRP spot ETF approval in 2025 is close to 100%, with high market expectations.

4E reminds investors: macro and regulatory changes are overlapping to impact the market, institutional capital allocation remains low, narrative-driven and policy expectations may amplify volatility, and investors should remain cautious.