Data: Bitcoin is nearing a breakout point, with $114,000 as the bull-bear dividing line

ChainCatcher news, glassnode published a market view stating that the current realized volatility indicators for all short-term Bitcoin have dropped to about 30% or below, marking a low volatility range since the bottom of $107,000. This calm rarely lasts, and a surge in volatility often follows. The market is approaching a breaking point, and momentum is about to shift.

Market momentum can be assessed from multiple angles—one of which is through realized profits (30-day moving average) capital inflows. Currently, this figure stands at $1.17 billion per day, down about 47% from the peak of $2.2 billion in June, but still above the baseline during the bear market ($800 million). Momentum is weakening, and the balance is becoming fragile. The net flow of U.S. spot ETFs (90-day moving average) is also showing a similar trend. This indicates a significant decline in TradFi buyer momentum, suggesting that institutional demand is weakening.

However, the drop to $107,000 triggered panic selling from top buyers, laying a typical foundation for a market rebound. Bitcoin may rebound to $114,000 in the short term, but as long as the price remains below this level, the overall trend tends to remain bearish.