Moody's: The probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months is 48%, and the economy is at a critical juncture

ChainCatcher news, according to Finbold, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that the agency's latest machine learning leading indicators show that as of August, the probability of an economic recession in the U.S. over the next year is 48%. He noted that although this reading is below the 50% threshold, historically, when the probability approaches or exceeds the mid-40% range, it often coincides with or follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that the slowdown in employment and consecutive downward revisions of data have put the economy at a critical point.