TL;DR

• In October 2025, the U.S. entered a monetary easing cycle, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and pausing balance sheet reduction. However, economic recovery remains weak, affected by high inflation, a soft job market, low consumer confidence, and intertwined government and external risks impacting growth. Although inflation has eased somewhat, it remains above target, and weak employment and fiscal constraints have diminished the short-term stimulative effect of easing policies on consumption and investment. Overall, the U.S. is in the early stages of a easing cycle, with an improved policy environment, but uncertainties regarding inflation, employment, and external risks continue to pressure economic recovery.

• The crypto market experienced significant volatility in October, with trading volume surging to $428.2 billion during the "10·11" crash, reaching a monthly peak. Subsequently, trading activity became subdued, with weak liquidity and declining risk appetite. The overall market capitalization slightly decreased by 0.57% compared to last month, maintaining fluctuations after a sharp pullback, with cautious market sentiment and insufficient incremental capital. Newly launched tokens primarily focused on infrastructure, DeFi, and AI projects, while Chinese meme tokens gained short-term popularity but showed limited sustainability.

• In October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $5.55 billion and $1.01 billion, respectively, with market confidence recovering somewhat after the black swan event, but overall sentiment remained cautious. The total circulation of stablecoins increased by $9.38 billion, with USDT and USDC being the main sources of growth, while USDE saw a significant decline in circulation by 31.1% due to the de-pegging incident.

• Bitcoin's short-term momentum has weakened, with prices failing to stabilize above the 50-day SMA, currently oscillating near the 20-day EMA. If it breaks below the $107,000 support, it may accelerate downward to $100,000, while $118,000 remains a key resistance level. Ethereum is generally weak, with prices retreating below the 50-day SMA. If it breaks the descending triangle support, it may further decline to $3,350; if it returns above the 50-day SMA, bulls may push for a rebound, but resistance remains strong. Solana shows clear tug-of-war dynamics, failing to stabilize above the 20-day EMA. If it breaks through and closes above, it may rise to the channel resistance line; if it drops below $190, bears may take control, potentially falling to $177 or even testing the lower channel boundary.

• The crypto market experienced the largest liquidation in history in October, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins plummeting due to Trump's tariffs and the USDe de-pegging incident. The total liquidation amount reached a new high of $19.1 billion, revealing systemic leverage risks. Chinese meme coins rapidly gained popularity on Binance and within the Solana and Base ecosystems, with projects like "Binance Life" seeing their market capitalization skyrocket and attracting a large number of new traders, becoming a phenomenon. The launch of the x402 protocol drew market attention, with related project prices soaring in the short term but subsequently retreating, indicating that the enthusiasm for innovative concepts is concentrated and volatile.

• Next month, the prediction market is expected to continue accelerating its expansion, with projects like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Truth Predict driving increased industry liquidity and attention, while capital and public chain ecosystem layouts are also accelerating. Although the crypto market suffered structural damage after the October 11 black swan event, expectations of trade easing and favorable policies provide support for the short-term return of risk assets. Future focus should be on the performance of new prediction market projects, progress in China-U.S. trade, changes in the dollar and liquidity environment, and leverage risks in the crypto market.

1. Macroeconomic Perspective

In October 2025, the U.S. economy entered a monetary easing cycle, but recovery momentum remains weak. The Federal Reserve has continuously cut interest rates and will pause balance sheet reduction, shifting the policy focus from suppressing inflation to stabilizing growth and preserving employment, reflecting concerns over economic slowdown. Inflation remains high, with a persistently weak job market, declining consumer confidence, government shutdowns, and external risks intertwining, resulting in a state of "policy has eased, growth has not taken off." Overall, the U.S. is at an early turning point in the cycle, with an improved policy environment, but macroeconomic recovery still requires time.

Policy Shift

In October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and announced a pause in balance sheet reduction to release liquidity and strengthen easing effects. This marks a comprehensive shift in monetary policy towards growth orientation. The current decision-making logic emphasizes prioritizing growth, with the Fed believing that inflation risks are relatively controllable, while worsening employment and fiscal uncertainty are more pressing challenges. The market expects another rate cut may occur within the year, but policy transmission will still take time, making it difficult to quickly stimulate consumption and business investment in the short term.

Inflation Remains Above Target

In September, the CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.0%. Although lower than expected, it remains above the Fed's 2% target. Prices for food, housing, and services remain strong, indicating that endogenous inflation has not completely dissipated. Powell emphasized in a statement that while inflation is trending towards moderation, policies cannot relax vigilance too early. If inflation declines slow down, the Fed may delay further easing. Inflation is temporarily controllable, but the target range has not yet been achieved.

Job Market Further Weakens

The rapid cooling of the labor market has become the core inducement for this round of easing. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended the release of September non-farm employment data, leaving the market lacking critical references. The latest available data from August shows that job growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added. Meanwhile, June data has been revised down to negative growth. The weak labor market is undermining the support for consumption and services, exacerbating the deterioration of household income expectations. The market is generally concerned that if employment continues to worsen, the economy will fall into a deeper growth decline, forcing the Fed to adopt more aggressive easing measures.

Political, Fiscal, and External Risks Persist

The U.S. government has shut down due to budget impasses, with some departments halting pay and operations, weakening fiscal spending and data transparency. Geopolitical frictions continue, including tensions in the Middle East and U.S.-China technology conflicts, which increase risk premiums. Fiscal and external uncertainties weaken the marginal effectiveness of monetary easing, making the pace of market recovery more sluggish. While easing provides short-term support, the transmission channels for policies are obstructed, and corporate confidence and long-term investment recovery remain limited.

Outlook

The U.S. is in the early stages of a monetary easing cycle, with an improved policy environment but an unstable economic recovery. The future focus will be on whether inflation can continue to decline, whether employment can stabilize, and whether easing policies can effectively transmit to consumption and investment. The fiscal deadlock, geopolitical risks, and market confidence remain major uncertainties.

2. Overview of the Crypto Market

Currency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of October 27, the overall trading volume in the crypto market fluctuated significantly. During the "10·11" crash, market sentiment surged sharply, with trading volume skyrocketing to $428.2 billion, a 106% increase month-on-month, reaching a monthly peak, as funds were rapidly released in panic and speculation. Outside of this period, overall market trading became subdued, with trading volume mostly maintaining between $150 billion and $200 billion, indicating a decline in investor risk appetite and a cautious sentiment. The liquidity appears slightly weak, with the market lacking sustained incremental capital inflows, and in the short term, stronger upward momentum will require macro and policy favorable factors to drive recovery.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth Amount

According to CoinGecko data, as of October 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $3.94 trillion, down 0.57% from last month. From the beginning of the month to October 9, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies continued to rise slightly, increasing from $3.96 trillion to $4.32 trillion, reflecting a gradual return of funds under favorable conditions. However, from October 10 to 11, the market experienced a sudden downturn, with a daily decline exceeding 9%, marking the largest pullback of the month, indicating panic selling of funds during the "10·11" market. Although the market briefly rebounded afterward, rising about 5.7%, the overall rebound strength was limited, with market capitalization oscillating between $3.7 trillion and $3.9 trillion. Overall, the market has stabilized after experiencing severe adjustments, with increased cautious sentiment and insufficient willingness for incremental capital inflows, remaining in a phase of fluctuation.

Newly Launched Popular Tokens in October

The popular tokens launched in October primarily focused on infrastructure, DeFi, and AI sectors, with a predominant presence of VC-backed projects. Notable projects such as Enso, Recall, Falcon Finance, YieldBasis, and ZEROBASE performed well, with active trading volumes post-launch. Additionally, the Chinese meme sector saw a short-term surge driven by the "Binance Life" effect and CZ's endorsements, with Binance contracts further fueling its sentiment.

|----------------|--------|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Token Fullname | Token | CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap | Exchange | | DoubleZero | 2Z | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/doublezero/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Crypto.com, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | Falcon Finance | FF | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/falcon-finance-ff/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, Huobi, Kraken, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | Meteora | MET | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/meteora/ | Bitmart, OKX, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | Anoma | XAN | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/anoma/ | Bitmart, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kraken, Kucoin, Mexc, Phemex | | Recall | RECALL | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/recall-network/ | Bitmart, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | Nomina | NOM | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nomina/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, Crypto.com, Huobi, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | YieldBasis | YB | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/yieldbasis/ | Bitmart, Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate, Coinbase, Bitget, Kraken, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | ZEROBASE | ZBT | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/zerobase/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, Huobi, Kraken, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | COMMON | COMMON | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/common/ | Bitmart, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, Kucoin, Mexc, Phemex | | Enso | ENSO | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/enso/ | Bitmart, Binance, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, Kraken, Kucoin, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex |

3. On-chain Data Analysis

Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows

In October, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $5.55 billion.
The Bitcoin spot ETF continued its inflow trend in October, with a monthly net inflow of $5.55 billion, bringing total assets to $149.9 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. Bitcoin's price slightly rose from $108,936 at the end of September to $110,070, an increase of 1%. After the October 11 black swan event, market confidence has improved somewhat, but overall changes remain minimal, still in a sluggish environment.

In October, Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.01 billion.
The Ethereum spot ETF saw approximately $1.01 billion in net inflows in October, with total assets growing to $26.6 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%. The price of ETH rose from $3,839 to $3,904, an increase of 1.69%.

Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

In October, the total circulation of stablecoins surged by $9.38 billion.

Although the overall market for stablecoins remained in an inflow state and continued to grow in October, market confidence was severely undermined by the October 11 black swan event. Notably, USDE saw a significant decline in circulation by nearly 31.1% due to concerns over its algorithmic stablecoin mechanism after the de-pegging incident. On the other hand, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by $9.38 billion, reaching $281.25 billion. USDT saw a monthly increase of $10.15 billion, maintaining its leading position. USDC also became a major source of growth, increasing by $2.23 billion.

4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

Analysis of BTC Price Changes

Bitcoin failed to stabilize above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, $114,278), triggering new selling pressure and causing the price to fall back below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, $112,347). This indicates that short-term momentum is beginning to weaken, with market sentiment becoming cautious. If BTC's closing price continues to remain below the 20-day EMA, bears may further exert pressure, pushing BTC/USDT prices towards the key support level of $107,000. Bulls are expected to defend this position vigorously, as losing this support would confirm a "double top" pattern and could trigger an accelerated decline towards the psychological level of $100,000.

On the upside, $118,000 remains a significant resistance that bulls need to overcome. If the price can break through and stabilize above this level, it will release strong upward momentum, pushing BTC towards the historical high of $126,199. Before that, the market may maintain a fluctuating pattern near the moving averages, accompanied by increased short-term volatility.

Analysis of ETH Price Changes

Ethereum retreated again after reaching the 50-day SMA ($4,220), indicating that bears are still actively selling at high levels, with the overall trend remaining weak. The current price is approaching the support line of the descending triangle, which is a key position determining the short-term direction. If this support is effectively broken, ETH/USDT may further decline to $3,350 or even lower.

If bulls can reclaim the price above the 50-day SMA, it would indicate that short-term momentum is recovering. At that point, the price is expected to rebound to the upper boundary of the descending triangle, where selling pressure is anticipated to be very strong. Only if Ethereum can successfully break through this resistance line and stabilize above it may a new upward trend begin, confirming a mid-term reversal signal.

SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana briefly broke through the 20-day EMA ($196) but failed to maintain the upward momentum, indicating insufficient buying power at high levels. The current 20-day EMA is flattening, and the RSI indicator is also fluctuating near the neutral zone, suggesting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. If buyers can push the price and close above the 20-day EMA, SOL/USDT may further rise to the channel resistance line. If this area is successfully broken, it will significantly enhance the market's bullish expectations.

Conversely, if the price falls below $190, it will indicate that bears have regained dominance. In this case, SOL may retreat to $177 and further test the lower support of the ascending channel. If it can find support and stabilize here, it may indicate that funds are beginning to accumulate at low levels; however, if the support is lost, the adjustment range may expand.

5. Hot Events of the Month

The crypto market faces the largest liquidation in history, triggered by Trump's tariffs and the USDe de-pegging incident.

On the evening of October 10, U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, while canceling the planned U.S.-China meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, causing severe fluctuations in global financial markets. U.S. stocks initially rose and then fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 283 points before plummeting by 887 points, and the Nasdaq index dropping over 3.5%. The chain reaction in risk assets led the crypto market to experience a violent downturn within hours, with Bitcoin dropping to $102,000 and Ethereum hitting a low of $3,392. The total liquidation amount across the network reached $19.1 billion, a historical high. According to Coinglass data, over 1.62 million people were liquidated globally, with long positions liquidating $16.7 billion and short positions nearly $2.5 billion. Altcoins were hit hardest, with many dropping over 80%, and some small tokens nearing zero. The stablecoin USDe briefly de-pegged to $0.60 on Binance before recovering to above $0.99.

This round of market crash was not only triggered by macro policy shocks but also revealed systemic risks related to market makers' funding shortages. After the collapse of Jump, market makers took on many projects that were originally serviced by Jump, but with limited funds, they prioritized Tier 0 and Tier 1 large projects, causing small altcoins to lose support during the market sell-off. The high-interest circular lending activities of USDe were concentrated and liquidated under extreme selling pressure, amplifying leverage and triggering chain liquidations, further exacerbating market panic.

Chinese Meme

In early October 2025, Binance co-founder He Yi's social media post "Wishing you a Binance Life" unexpectedly ignited the creative enthusiasm of the Chinese crypto community, giving rise to a meme coin called "Binance Life." This concept rapidly fermented through community dissemination and KOL promotion, with its market capitalization soaring to $500 million within just a few days, an increase of 6000 times, becoming a phenomenon. According to DeFiLlama statistics, the daily trading volume of BNB chain DEX surged to $6.05 billion, attracting over 100,000 new traders.

Notably, the public chains Solana and Base, which are major hubs for memes, have also seen a rise in popular Chinese memes recently. Solana's official Twitter stated that its Chinese name is "Suola," leading to the emergence of related Chinese memes. The market capitalization of Base Life on Base also surpassed ten million, and some small-cap Chinese memes have appeared on Base. Currently, it seems that from Binance Life to projects like Xiu Xian and Customer Service Xiao He, Chinese memes have already established a certain position in the crypto market. With the continuous expansion of the BSC ecosystem and more creators participating, it is expected that more new meme projects inspired by Chinese topics, characters, or internet trends will emerge.

x402 Protocol

x402 is an AI payment protocol jointly launched by Coinbase and Cloudflare, inspired by the long-unused HTTP status code "402 Payment Required." The core innovation of the protocol lies in embedding payment logic into web interaction processes, making payments a part of internet communication, forming a new model of Payment as Interaction. Through x402, AI agents, API services, and web applications can directly complete instant stablecoin payments within standard HTTP requests. Due to its inherent support for stablecoins, small high-frequency transactions, and low latency, x402 is suitable for AI agents to buy data, tools, and computing power on-demand, allowing Web2 services to connect to on-chain settlements with minimal changes, without the need to navigate multiple barriers like registration, email, or complex signatures.

Although the x402 concept became a hot topic in the market within just two days of its launch, driving significant price increases for several related projects, with typical projects like PING seeing a nearly 20-fold increase in price within two days, reaching a market capitalization of $80 million, and Payai's market cap peaking at $70 million. However, its popularity quickly receded after a week. Several popular projects experienced nearly 80% deep corrections from their peaks. Nevertheless, this concept has not faded away. With the successive launch of new tokens like Kite and Pieverse, market attention towards the x402 ecosystem is expected to be reignited.

6. Outlook for Next Month

Prediction Market Enters Accelerated Expansion Phase

From 2024 to 2025, the prediction market sector is entering a phase of explosive growth. Projects represented by Polymarket and Kalshi continue to lead the industry, with daily trading volumes frequently exceeding $100 million, and cumulative trading volumes reaching hundreds of billions. On the capital front, Polymarket and Kalshi completed new rounds of financing at valuations of approximately $9 billion and $5 billion, respectively, marking a critical turning point for the prediction market as it transitions from marginal innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure.

In October, Trump's media company TMTG announced its official entry into the prediction market through the Truth Social platform, launching the Truth Predict service. This will not only further expand the influence of the prediction market in U.S. politics and public opinion but may also become a milestone event in the integration of traditional social media and crypto prediction markets. Meanwhile, capital and public chain ecosystem layouts are also accelerating. YZI Labs invested in two prediction market projects—Opinion and Apro—this month; the prediction market protocol Limitless, backed by Coinbase, officially issued its token this month, currently valued at approximately $350 million. The active entry of mainstream institutions and leading ecosystems signifies that the prediction market is transitioning from an early "crypto niche experiment" to the next generation of financial market infrastructure centered on liquidity, compliance, and composability. Future focus should be on the market performance of tokens from projects like Limitless, Opinion (not yet issued), and Apro, which may bring new discussion hotspots in the current market lacking popular narratives.

Market Recovery After the October 11 Black Swan Event

Since the "black swan" event on October 11, the crypto market has shown significant structural damage, and it may continue to maintain a state of high volatility and high risk in the short term. On October 30, Trump met with Xi Jinping, easing tensions between China and the U.S.; the next day, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution with 51 votes in favor and 47 against, aimed at terminating Trump's comprehensive tariff policy implemented globally. This change in policy is a positive signal for the market, expected to release expectations for trade easing and improve risk appetite. However, the structural damage has not been immediately repaired: although the tariff system was "voted down" by Congress, the actual implementation and the comprehensive trade agreement between China and the U.S. remain uncertain, and the policy's implementation still carries uncertainty. Additionally, the U.S. government has shut down due to budget impasses, with some departments halting pay and operations, weakening fiscal spending and data transparency. The crypto market is highly dependent on macro liquidity, the strength of the dollar, geopolitical factors, and regulatory expectations, with multiple variables still in play.

Looking ahead, if trade relations genuinely warm up and drive the recovery of the real economy, it could provide a trigger point for the return of crypto assets as "risk assets." Conversely, if policy implementation lags or new frictions arise, it could still trigger capital withdrawals and further market volatility. In this context, key areas to focus on include: first, the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the specific timetable for tariff removal/restoration; second, the trend of the dollar, changes in the liquidity environment, especially the transmission effects of U.S. monetary and foreign exchange policies; third, the use of leverage in the crypto market and liquidation risks, as in a structurally damaged environment, passive liquidation of leverage can easily trigger chain reactions.