4E: Crypto market crashes by $1.2 billion; whales cut losses; Bitcoin cycle pattern may be ending

According to 4E observations, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sudden flash crash on Monday, with over $1.2 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, of which more than 90% were long positions. Bitcoin briefly dropped from $108,000 to $105,000, while Ethereum plummeted from $3,700 to $3,500, with both seeing liquidation amounts exceeding $100 million within an hour. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index maintained around -$30 during the crash, indicating that U.S. investors may have been the dominant selling force.

Monitoring platform "Ember" showed that an account known as the "100% Win Rate Whale" liquidated $258 million worth of BTC, ETH, and SOL long positions 8 hours ago, incurring a loss of $15.65 million, nearly wiping out all profits from the past 20 days. This account still holds approximately $148 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin "halving four-year cycle" model may no longer be applicable. His analysis indicates that the unrealized profit margin of whales is in a neutral range, mining companies are continuously expanding, ETF and MicroStrategy buying has slowed, short-term whales are nearing breakeven, while long-term whales still maintain about 53% profit. Overall on-chain data shows that the market has shifted from being cycle-driven to being driven by institutional liquidity.

4E Commentary: The market flash crash reflects the fragility of high-leverage structures and the pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. If Bitcoin enters a "no cycle" phase, future volatility will rely more on the rhythm of institutional funds and macro liquidity signals, rather than historical experience.