4E: Bitcoin loses another $100,000, risk sentiment takes a sharp turn

According to 4E observations, the U.S. government shutdown has officially ended, but the market did not rebound, with all three major U.S. stock indices weakening. The Nasdaq fell over 2.2%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%. Bitcoin, meanwhile, once again fell below the $100,000 mark amidst a broad decline in risk assets, hitting a low of about $98,000, the lowest since May, and the third time this month it has breached this key integer level. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $550 million, with long positions accounting for $423 million. Liquidations for BTC and ETH reached $168 million and $144 million, respectively.

The market generally believes that this round of decline was triggered by a sharp drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling from 85% last week to nearly "50/50." At the same time, the controversy over the AI bubble is impacting tech stocks, and the high correlation between the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks, combined with the sharp decline of MEME coins in October weakening the profit-making effect, has led to continued pressure on Bitcoin.

In terms of individual stocks, the mining company Bitdeer saw its stock price drop another 20%, with a cumulative decline of nearly 50% this week. The company announced the issuance of $400 million in convertible bonds and the repurchase of old bonds, coupled with a fire at its mining facility, Q3 losses exceeding expectations, and delays in ASIC chip deliveries, further undermining market confidence.

In the on-chain and ETF sectors, there are structural highlights. Uniswap recorded a historic monthly trading volume of $116.6 billion in October; the XRP spot ETF launched by Canary achieved a trading volume of $58 million on its first day, setting a new record for first-day trading volume for new ETFs this year, surpassing the previous Solana ETF.

On the macro level, Luxembourg's sovereign wealth fund FSIL confirmed that it will allocate 1% of its portfolio to Bitcoin, with the finance minister emphasizing that Bitcoin is becoming part of Europe's competitive strategy.

4E Commentary: The market is currently in a "strong volatility + weak expectations" phase, with macro pressures and sentiment jointly suppressing Bitcoin's performance. However, with the rise in DEX activity and the entry of sovereign funds, long-term capital is still being allocated, and bearish signals have not yet been fully confirmed.