4E: The U.S. resumes the release of employment data, but the "shutdown gap" leaves policy visibility still unclear

According to 4E observations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will resume the release of the delayed September non-farm payroll report this Thursday due to the government shutdown, ending a two-month period of official data silence. However, this data is considered "stale information" due to its lag, and its market impact may be relatively limited.

The Dow Jones consensus expects approximately 50,000 new jobs in September, up from the original 22,000 in August, but still reflecting a weak labor market; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with wage growth at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, essentially unchanged from previous values. RSM Chief Economist Brusuelas believes that the revisions for September and the previous two months may be slightly better than expected, but overall still lack strength.

The impact of the shutdown on the data system is more profound. The BLS confirmed that it will combine the October and November employment reports for release on December 16, and the unemployment rate for October will not be released separately; job openings (JOLTS) data for September and October will also be combined. Previously, only the CPI was released as scheduled during the shutdown due to its use in adjusting social security benefits. Brusuelas stated that the economy is entering a "period of general uncertainty," and it may take until February next year to truly understand the labor market situation.

Despite the absence of official data, there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding "insufficient information." Governor Waller emphasized that policy-making is not "blind flying," and in support of a rate cut in December, he stated that current alternative indicators are sufficient to judge the economic direction. Goldman Sachs expects 80,000 new jobs in September, but a reduction of 50,000 in October may occur due to the expiration of related delayed resignation plans from the Department of Efficiency, and it believes the unemployment rate may rise due to temporary layoffs.

Thursday's report will also include revised data for July and August, with both Goldman Sachs and RSM expecting upward revisions.

4E Commentary: While the resumption of non-farm payroll releases can partially fill the data gap, its lagging nature limits its guiding value for policy and the market. In the short term, the market will still seek direction amid "incomplete information + expectation divergence," with macro visibility remaining low.