Generali economists: The market has overly raised expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing, and a rate cut in January next year is reasonable

Generali Investments senior economist Paolo Zanghieri stated that he and his team believe the rate cuts reflected by the market exceed the cuts that the Federal Reserve may implement. "We believe there is a 50% chance of a rate cut next month. Given the limited new data, it is reasonable for the Federal Reserve to wait until January of next year to cut rates while signaling a tendency towards easing. More importantly, based on hopes for a rapid decline in inflation, the market expects nearly four rate cuts next year, which seems overly optimistic. We expect only a 50 basis point cut by summer." (Jin Shi)