Analysis: Bitcoin faces ETF-related selling pressure around $95,000, which may reinforce the range-bound pattern

Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound. This recovery seems to be related to improved risk sentiment rather than specific drivers in the crypto space, while the stock market has also seen a slight increase. The market currently expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and labor market data continues to show weakness, including rising unemployment rates.

The balance of Federal Reserve officials' statements has slightly tilted towards easing. Given the lack of other important economic data this week, the market's focus will shift to the unemployment claims and ADP employment report to be released later this week. The credit default swaps (CDS) related to AI and the tech credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that investors are reassessing the driving factors dominating the macro market.

Crypto ETFs continue to experience net outflows, with several digital asset products facing liquidation. Currently, most products are trading below a net asset value of $1 per unit, reflecting a heightened market aversion to risk. As Strategy's Bitcoin reserves approach the breakeven point and its stock is placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, the issues surrounding Strategy are once again in the spotlight.

As the year-end approaches, Bitcoin faces the dual impact of negative fund flows and a supportive options structure. The correlation with AI-related stocks has increased, while the fear and greed index has declined. The demand for downside protection remains high, although open interest still leans towards call options, both positions and implied volatility have decreased.

If Bitcoin's price rebounds to around $95,000, it may encounter selling pressure related to ETFs, reinforcing its range-bound trend. After a significant drop recently, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a key support level. The crypto market continues to serve as a barometer for overall market risk appetite, with macro drivers still firmly controlling market direction.