Analysis: Concerns about the Bitcoin market are exaggerated, and policy changes open up space for a mid-term rise

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out in the market outlook report that several of the biggest fears facing Bitcoin are distant, hypothetical issues rather than immediate threats, such as quantum risks and the potential sale of BTC by Strategy. While Bitcoin is undergoing the most severe adjustment since the bear market of 2022-23, the current wave of panic is driven by exaggerated long-term risks rather than any direct structural threats. The oversupply of derivatives, concentrated sell-offs by long-term holders, and widespread supply distribution are catalysts that have led the market to recent lows.

However, a series of mid-term policy and structural developments could significantly enhance Bitcoin's prospects, such as the new 401(k) pension plan guidelines to be issued by U.S. regulators in February 2026, allowing for the allocation of cryptocurrencies in the $9 trillion retirement market.