Author: Wang Tai | Editor: Wang Tai

1. Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/11/29-2025/12/05)

During this phase, the overall trend of Bitcoin is characterized by "narrow consolidation → sudden plunge → V-shaped rebound → high-level oscillation." The price range is roughly between $84,286 and $94,010, with a fluctuation range of nearly $10,000, indicating a volatile trend. A significant drop occurred between December 1 and 2, followed by a strong rebound. After December 3, the market resumed its upward movement, with prices gradually stabilizing above $92,000.

Narrow Consolidation Phase (November 29 - November 30)

After several days of correction, Bitcoin exhibited a low-volatility narrow oscillation pattern from November 29 to 30, mainly operating within the $90,000 to $91,500 range, with trading sentiment being relatively cautious.

On November 29, it slightly rose to around $91,500 but faced resistance and retreated slightly at the end of the session;

On November 30, it maintained a weak oscillation, consolidating around the $90,800 level, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

Reasons for the Trend:

• After consecutive corrections, the market entered a technical consolidation phase;
• Before the release of key macro data, both bulls and bears tended to be conservative;
• Trading volume significantly shrank, indicating insufficient trading willingness.

Sudden Plunge Phase (December 1 - Morning of December 2)

From the evening of December 1 to the morning of December 2, Bitcoin experienced a cliff-like rapid decline, dropping from above $90,000 to a low of $84,286, marking a new low for this phase. Short-term bearish sentiment dominated, with prices almost without any rebound process directly breaking through $86,000; a large number of leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a chain liquidation effect, and intra-day volatility sharply increased, with panic selling flooding the market.

Reasons for the Trend:

• The technical pattern failed to effectively break through previous highs, leading to a reversal failure and bearish dominance;
• Leveraged funds were overly concentrated above $89,000, becoming a trigger point for selling pressure.

V-Shaped Rebound Phase (Afternoon of December 2 - December 3)

After breaking below $85,000, the market quickly surged, exhibiting a typical "V-shaped reversal" trend, successfully returning to the $91,500 to $92,000 range by the evening of December 3. On the afternoon of December 2, the price quickly rose from the $84,000 area to $89,000; the rebound continued on December 3, briefly hitting $93,000, with market sentiment significantly warming.

At the beginning of this week, the options market was dominated by put options, reflecting concerns about a repeat of the price trend from August 2024, which is related to worries about the potential liquidation of Japanese carry trades. Given that this risk has been experienced before, the market has anticipated the potential spread of this contagion and the types of recoveries it usually brings. After price stabilization, liquidity quickly shifted: the rebound decisively tilted towards call options activity, almost perfectly reversing the pressure period's pattern.

Reasons for the Trend:

• After severe overselling, the demand for short-term technical rebounds was released;
• ETF expectations and macro policy stability signals jointly alleviated market panic.

High-Level Oscillation Phase (December 4 - December 5)

After successfully stabilizing, the price entered a high-level oscillation range, operating between $91,500 and $94,010, with multiple attempts to break through previous highs failing, but overall maintaining a strong structure. On December 4, it surged to a peak of $94,010 but was suppressed by short-term profit-taking and failed to sustain the upward movement; on December 5, it slightly retraced, hitting a low near $91,800 before rebounding again, with the price at the time of writing being $92,590.

Reasons for the Trend:

• The upward momentum showed signs of weakening, with significant technical resistance levels;
• Bulls and bears entered a state of contention, with short-term funds rapidly entering and exiting, increasing volatility;

The market is waiting for the next clear directional signal, such as guidance on Federal Reserve interest rates or progress on ETF policies.

2. Market Dynamics and Macro Background

Capital Flow

1. ETF Capital Dynamics

This week’s Bitcoin ETF capital flow:

• November 28: +$71.4 million
• December 01: +$8.5 million
• December 02: +$58.5 million
• December 03: -$14.9 million
• December 04: -$81.6 million

ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Image

Overall, the ETF capital during this period showed a pattern of "slight inflow, followed by slight outflow," with the capital structure remaining unstable but slightly positively inclined. There were three days of brief net inflow from November 28 to December 2, indicating that the capital momentum flowing into Bitcoin still showed slight positive signs, which helps explain the support for the real market average and the subsequent rebound above $90,000. This capital momentum can be measured by the net change in market capitalization, currently at +$86.9 billion per month, far below the peak monthly value of $64.3 billion in July 2025. However, it remains positively affirming. As long as capital momentum stays above zero, the real market average can continue to serve as a consolidation area and potential bottom formation zone, rather than the beginning of a deeper collapse. The oscillation in ETF capital flow during this period reflects that institutional investors remain cautious in deploying Bitcoin amid current volatility and macro risks, clearly in a "wait-and-see + small-scale probing" state.

2. Bitcoin ETF Demand Slows

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The net flow of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has significantly worsened, with the average value over three days in November firmly sliding into negative territory. This clearly reverses the continuous inflow mechanism that supported prices at the beginning of the year, reflecting a cooling of new capital allocation. There is a general outflow of funds from various issuers, indicating that institutional participants are adopting a more cautious attitude under weakening market conditions. The spot market is facing a backdrop of weakened demand, which undermines direct support from buyers, making prices more sensitive to external shocks and macro volatility.

3. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $3.5 billion outflow in November, the largest monthly outflow since February

According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $3.5 billion in November, marking the largest monthly negative flow since the beginning of the year. Since October 31, Bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling $4.34 billion. However, in the last three days of November, prior to Thanksgiving in the U.S., there was a shift to net inflow.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT, as the largest Bitcoin ETF by net asset size, saw an outflow of $2.34 billion in November and recorded its largest single-day outflow since inception on November 18, reaching $523 million. LVRG Director Nick Ruck stated that this outflow mainly reflects institutions taking profits after Bitcoin reached an all-time high and adjusting their portfolios at year-end, rather than a loss of confidence. Additionally, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.42 billion in November, marking the largest monthly outflow in history. Meanwhile, newly launched spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, and others continued to record net inflows, with the XRP ETF accumulating $666 million in inflows. Grayscale plans to launch the first U.S. spot Chainlink ETF this week, further expanding its crypto product lineup.

4. Trading Activity Shifts from On-Chain to Off-Chain

According to the fourth-quarter digital asset report released by glassnode, this cycle saw a new capital influx of $732 billion into Bitcoin, with the one-year actual volatility nearly halved, leading to calmer market trading, larger scales, and higher institutional participation. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin's settlement amount was approximately $6.9 trillion, comparable to or higher than Visa and Mastercard.

As capital flows to ETFs and brokers, trading activity is shifting off-chain, but Bitcoin and stablecoins still dominate on-chain settlements. The scale of tokenized RWA has grown from $7 billion to $24 billion within a year, marking the most significant phase of institutional adoption to date. Tokenized funds are one of the fastest-growing areas in 2025, providing new distribution channels for asset management companies and investment opportunities for previously underserved investors.

5. Long-Term Holders' Profitability Declines

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Maintaining a state of positive capital inflow means that new demand can still absorb the profit realization of long-term investors. The SOPR (30D-SMA) for long-term holders measures the ratio of spot prices to the active consumption cost basis of long-term holders. Despite a significant drop in prices, it remains above 1 (currently at 1.43). This emerging trend in profitability again reflects the structure seen in the first quarter of 2022: long-term holders continue to realize profits, but the profitability is narrowing.

Although demand momentum is strong compared to early 2022, liquidity continues to decline, so bulls must hold the real market average until a new wave of demand enters the market.

Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

Bitcoin 14-Day RSI Data Image

At the end of this period, the RSI is at 47.63, close to a neutral position but has not yet returned to the clearly overbought zone (RSI > 55-60). Compared to previous weeks, the rise in RSI this week indicates that short-term overselling pressure has been partially released, but it is still insufficient to reflect a trend recovery.

2. Moving Average (MA) Analysis

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200 Data Image

The latest moving average data shows:

• MA5 (5-day moving average): $91,230
• MA20 (20-day moving average): $93,663
• MA50 (50-day moving average): $106,023
• MA100 (100-day moving average): $112,066

The current price is approximately $92,380, above the MA5 but far below the MA20 / MA50 / MA100. This structure indicates that a short-term rebound has begun, but the mid-term and long-term moving averages have not yet turned, and a bullish trend has not been established. If Bitcoin fails to break through and stabilize above the MA20, the rebound may only be a low-level correction within a reversal rather than the start of a new trend. The downward trends of MA50 & MA100 have not changed.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Level: $88,000; if broken, the next support area is at $82,000-$84,000.

Resistance Level: $93,000-$94,000 (MA20).

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear and Greed Index Data Image

As of December 5, the "Fear and Greed Index" is around 25 points, in the "extreme fear" range.

Looking back at this week (from November 29 to December 5), the Fear and Greed Index readings were 20 (fear), 20 (fear), 20 (fear), 16 (extreme fear), 22 (fear), 27 (fear), and 25 (fear). As Bitcoin's price returned above $90,000, sentiment showed a phase recovery, warming compared to last week, with extreme panic easing to fear, indicating a slight alleviation of investor anxiety. Although the market has experienced initial recovery after a deep drop, overall confidence remains weak. The current sentiment range suggests that the rebound is mainly technical rather than a trend-driven advance. If subsequent capital conditions can continue to improve, and no new risk signals emerge macro-wise, sentiment is expected to continue moving out of the fear range. Otherwise, if prices fall back below key ranges, market sentiment may quickly decline.

Macro Economic Background

1. Spot silver breaks $57 per ounce for the first time in history, rising 1.34% in a day.

On November 31, during the Asian trading session, the price of London spot silver reached a new historical high, breaking $57 per ounce for the first time during the session. As of the time of reporting, the daily increase in silver prices exceeded 1.34%, with some periods even reaching as high as 2.3%.

The surge in silver is not an isolated event; it reflects global capital's long-term distrust of the fiat currency system. Together with the Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-loose policies, it provides the most favorable macro environment for $BTC$—a perfect combination of inflation hedging, liquidity shift, and scarcity asset premium, indicating that the foundation for a cryptocurrency bull market is becoming unprecedentedly solid.

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2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is rumored to be stepping down soon.

On December 1, U.S. President Trump stated: "I know who I want to choose as the Federal Reserve Chairman, and I will announce it soon." He also dropped a bombshell, stating that the U.S. will soon see the interest rate cuts that the economy truly needs. In response, Hassett publicly expressed that he would be very willing to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman if nominated by Trump.

Once the Federal Reserve officially begins a rate-cutting cycle, a large amount of low-cost dollar liquidity will flood the market, seeking assets with more value elasticity than traditional fiat currencies, and $BTC$ will be the preferred choice to absorb this "liquidity flood." Therefore, this significant drop is not an end but the last macro wash before the bull market rises.

3. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signals interest rate hikes, stating that inflation trends are close to targets.

On December 2, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda released signals for interest rate hikes, stating that inflation trends are close to targets. Saying goodbye to cheap leverage and welcoming a healthy bull market: Although there may be volatility from the unwinding of yen carry trades in the short term, this is essentially cleaning up speculative bubbles in the market. The market's focus is shifting from a speculative phase reliant on cheap yen leverage to a mature bull market driven by spot ETFs and global institutional allocations. The Bank of Japan's actions lay a more solid macro foundation for the healthy and sustainable rise of $BTC$ prices.

With the normalization of Japan's financial regulatory system, this will provide a safer and more regulated channel for local institutional capital allocation into $BTC$. Global financial institutions and Asian wealth will allocate more capital into compliant $BTC$ spot products, driving long-term structural demand for Bitcoin in Asia, rather than just short-term arbitrage speculation.

4. Trump announces Hassett may become the Federal Reserve Chairman.

On December 4, U.S. President Trump stated that he plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman candidate in early 2026. Financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Federal Reserve Correspondent," stated that although interviews for Federal Reserve Chairman candidates are still ongoing, Trump has already "designated" Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, for the position. Hassett has expressed to the White House and other government officials his desire for the position and believes he is the best candidate.

When Trump introduced Hassett, he said: "Bessent doesn't want the Federal Reserve's various roles; the potential Federal Reserve Chairman is right here (referring to Bessent)!" After this statement, the dollar index fell by 0.09%, while Bitcoin rebounded strongly by over 6%. With short-term liquidity being insufficient, caution is advised, and COMNEX gold fell by 0.8%. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds reduced its decline, with the latest 10-year Treasury yield down by 1 basis point to 4.087%.

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3. Mining Dynamics

Hash Rate Changes

Over the past seven days, the Bitcoin network hash rate has steadily increased, maintaining a range of 881.32 EH/s to 1285.30 EH/s, remaining at a relatively high level.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin's overall computing power has consistently stayed around the high range of 1 ZH/s, maintaining a strong overall structure. Although there have been frequent fluctuations in the short term, they all belong to high-level oscillations, with no signs of a downward trend, indicating that the computing power base remains solid. This week’s main changes are still closely linked to Bitcoin prices. On December 2, when BTC experienced a phase correction, the hash rate also saw a sharp drop, hitting a low of about 881 EH/s. Subsequently, as prices quickly recovered, the hash rate also rebounded rapidly, approaching a phase high of 1.15 ZH/s on December 3-4, reflecting the recovery speed of computing power in the mining industry and its resilience in a high-cost environment.

Weekly Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

As of December 5, the total network hash rate reached 1.04 ZH/s, with mining difficulty at 149.30 T. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on December 11, with an estimated decrease of 0.73%, bringing the difficulty to approximately 148.22 T.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

Bitcoin Hash Price Index

From the perspective of daily revenue per unit of computing power (Hashprice), Hashrate Index data shows that as of December 5, 2025, Hashprice is $39.24/PH/s/day. This week, Hashprice has generally followed the trend of Bitcoin prices, showing a pattern of rising sharply after a decline:

December 4: This week's high point at $39.80/PH/s/day.

December 2: This week's low point at $35.85/PH/s/day.

The core driver of Hashprice still comes from Bitcoin prices and on-chain transaction demand. Recently, the combination of BTC price corrections and a cooling of on-chain activity has repeatedly weakened miners' revenue rebounds. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in total network hash rate further compresses the profit space per unit of computing power. However, the rapid surge observed on Wednesday was significantly stronger than the weekly average, indicating that there is still some resilience amid high-level fluctuations.

Combining the latest industry data, the overall mining economy is entering a more strained phase. At the same time, the payback period for mining machines has been extended to over 1,200 days, with financing costs continuing to rise, forcing mining companies to accelerate their transition to AI and high-performance computing (HPC). However, current related revenues are insufficient to offset the decline in mining profits. Despite the pressure on the mining side, capital market sentiment has shown phase improvements. Overall, miners' revenues are still under pressure in the short term, and the mining ecosystem is gradually entering a phase that emphasizes efficiency improvement, cost control, and business diversification; however, against the backdrop of record high hash rates and increased institutional attention, the industry still demonstrates certain risk resilience and structural growth opportunities.

Hashprice Data

4. Policy and Regulatory News

Beijing Business Daily: The People's Bank of China defines stablecoins for the first time, industry analysis indicates no impact on Hong Kong's stablecoin-related layout.

On November 30, Beijing Business Daily published an article titled "Speculative Trading Rises, People's Bank of China Strikes Again on Virtual Currency, and Defines Stablecoins for the First Time," noting that the People's Bank of China recently held a meeting to coordinate efforts to combat virtual currency trading speculation, during which financial regulatory authorities defined stablecoins for the first time, clarifying that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency that currently cannot effectively meet customer identity verification, anti-money laundering, and other requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers, and reiterating the need to continue combating illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies.

The Federal Reserve and FDIC will advance the implementation of the GENIUS Act, with the first regulatory rules for stablecoin issuers expected to be announced in December.

On December 2, ChainCatcher reported that Travis Hill, acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), stated in his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee that the FDIC expects to launch the first set of regulatory proposals for stablecoin issuers to implement the "U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation and Establishment Act" (GENIUS Act). The first set of rules will clarify the process for stablecoin issuers to apply for federal regulation, followed by the release of prudential requirements for FDIC-regulated payment stablecoin issuers early next year, including capital standards, liquidity requirements, and reserve asset quality supervision.

The FDIC and other agencies are advancing their respective regulatory responsibilities under the GENIUS Act. The rules will undergo a public comment phase and will only take effect after evaluation. Hill also stated that the FDIC is developing further guidance on the regulatory status of "tokenized deposits" based on recommendations from the President's Digital Asset Market Working Group. It is reported that this hearing will also hear testimonies from other financial regulatory agencies, including the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman also stated that the Federal Reserve is developing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers regarding capital, liquidity, and risk diversification as required by the GENIUS Act.

Turkmenistan passes a regulatory bill for crypto assets.

On December 3, Reuters reported that Turkmenistan passed a bill to legalize and regulate digital assets, including a licensing system for cryptocurrency exchanges and mining companies. Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdymukhamedov has signed the bill, which will officially take effect on January 1.

According to a government spokesperson, the bill will help attract investment and promote digitization. The content of the bill covers the regulatory framework for creating, storing, issuing, using, and circulating virtual assets within Turkmenistan, clarifying their legal and economic status. Turkmenistan is a landlocked country located in southwestern Central Asia.

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The Japanese government is working to adjust the taxation of cryptocurrency trading income to a flat rate of 20%.

On December 4, Nikkei reported that the Japanese government and the ruling party are working to adjust the taxation policy for cryptocurrency trading income, planning to uniformly impose a 20% income tax rate regardless of the transaction amount, allowing it to enjoy the same treatment as stocks, investment trusts, and other financial products. This move aims to reduce the tax burden on investors and activate the domestic trading market.

The Japanese government plans to replace the current comprehensive taxation method with a separate taxation method, meaning that cryptocurrency trading income will no longer be combined with wages, business income, and other income for calculation but will be taxed separately. The government's goal is to incorporate this adjustment into the 2026 tax reform outline, which is expected to be finalized by the end of the year. Currently, Japan adopts a comprehensive taxation method for cryptocurrency trading income, meaning that it is combined with other types of income and subject to a progressive tax rate based on total income, with the highest rate reaching 55%.

The Financial Services Agency of Japan plans to submit an amendment to the "Financial Instruments and Exchange Act" to the Diet in 2026, aiming to strengthen strict regulation of cryptocurrency trading. The amendment will explicitly prohibit insider trading using undisclosed information and require cryptocurrency issuers to fulfill information disclosure obligations. With the advancement of tax reform, it is expected that Japan will also lift the ban on investment trust products containing cryptocurrency components.

5. Bitcoin News

"Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (Weekly Statistics)" Related Content Collection and Organization

1. DDC Enterprise will acquire 300 Bitcoins to expand its reserve holdings.

On November 30, DDC Enterprise announced that it has signed an agreement to purchase 300 Bitcoins. After the transaction is completed, the total holdings will increase to 1,383 Bitcoins.

2. Capital B increases its holdings by 5 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 2,823 Bitcoins.

On December 1, Foresight News reported that the French listed company Capital B increased its holdings by 5 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 2,823 Bitcoins.

3. OranjeBTC increases its holdings by 7.3 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 3,720.3 BTC.

On December 1, Brazilian listed company OranjeBTC announced that it has increased its holdings by 7.3 BTC at an average price of approximately $95,000, bringing its total holdings to 3,720.3 BTC, with a year-to-date Bitcoin return of 2.2%.

4. Nasdaq-listed company Prenetics increases its holdings by six, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 504.

On December 2, BlockWeeks reported that Nasdaq-listed company Prenetics disclosed on the X platform that it has increased its holdings by six Bitcoins this week, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 504, with a year-to-date Bitcoin return of 435%.

5. Hong Kong telecom company Moon Inc. increases its holdings by 7 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 42.

On December 2, ChainCatcher reported that Hong Kong telecom company Moon Inc. (Hong Kong Stock Exchange code: 1723) announced that it has purchased 7 Bitcoins at an average price of $86,233, increasing its Bitcoin reserves to 42, with an average holding cost of $90,363.

6. GIGA Company increases its holdings by 27.96 Bitcoins, currently holding a total of 1,209.89 BTC.

On December 3, GIGA Company increased its holdings by 27.96 Bitcoins, currently holding a total of 1,209.89 BTC.

7. Japan's Metaplanet plans to raise $136 million to increase its Bitcoin holdings.

On December 3, Japan's Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet plans to raise $136 million to increase its Bitcoin holdings.

8. Hong Kong telecom company Moon Inc. increases its holdings by 7 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 42.

On December 3, Hong Kong telecom company Moon Inc. (Hong Kong Stock Exchange code: 1723) announced that it has purchased 7 Bitcoins at an average price of $86,233, increasing its Bitcoin reserves to 42, with an average holding cost of $90,363.

9. Sovereign wealth funds are buying Bitcoin to establish long-term holdings.

On December 3, Forbes reported that some sovereign wealth funds are buying Bitcoin, and as the price of Bitcoin has fallen from its peak of $126,000, "they have increased their buying intensity."

These funds are "gradually" buying and increasing their positions as prices fall to around $80,000, aiming to establish long-term holdings.

10. BTC Treasury Company B HODL increases its holdings by 2.17 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 157.211 BTC.

On December 4, ChainCatcher reported that BTC Treasury Company B HODL disclosed that it has added 2.17 BTC to its treasury. After this increase, B HODL's total Bitcoin holdings reached 157.211 BTC.

Elon Musk predicts: Future energy will be hard currency, and Bitcoin is formed based on energy.

On December 1, Musk stated in a podcast that future human material needs will be greatly met, so currency will no longer be a necessity for humans, and the concept of currency may even disappear.

At that time, energy will become real currency, and "this is why I say Bitcoin is formed based on energy; you cannot control energy through legislation. You cannot suddenly have a lot of energy just by passing a law."

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UAE's Mashreq Capital includes Bitcoin ETF in its new multi-asset fund.

On December 1, according to Cryptopolitan, UAE asset management company Mashreq Capital, headquartered in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), announced the launch of a multi-asset investment mutual fund BITMAC, which covers various asset classes such as stocks, fixed income, gold, and Bitcoin through ETFs, with 90% invested in global stocks and global fixed income, 5% in gold, and 5% in Bitcoin.

The fund is aimed at retail investors, with a minimum investment of $100. It provides retail investors with an institutional-grade pathway to allocate both traditional asset classes and digital assets within a single retail fund solution.

Sovereign Wealth Funds Entering the Market: Middle East and Asia Begin Accumulating Positions.

On December 2, following the allocation of BTC ETFs by U.S. pension and university endowment funds, reliable sources indicate that sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia have begun to make small but strategically significant allocations to Bitcoin through complex financial instruments or private trust funds. The entry of sovereign wealth funds signifies that BTC is not only viewed as an "asset" but also as a national-level strategic reserve or "hedging tool." Once such large institutions incorporate Bitcoin into their official balance sheets, the demonstration effect and subsequent allocation of funds will be astronomical.

Bitwise CIO: MStrategy will not be forced to sell Bitcoin.

On December 3, ChainCatcher reported that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that despite the decline in MStrategy (MSTR) stock price, the company will not be forced to sell its $60 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings. Hougan pointed out that MSTR has $1.4 billion in cash reserves and does not need to repay debt before 2027, and the current Bitcoin price is around $92,000, above the company's average purchase cost of $74,000.

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Retail Liquidation Nearing Completion, Bitcoin Still Has a Chance to Reach New Historical Highs by Year-End.

On December 5, Bitwise CIO stated: Retail liquidation is nearing completion, and Bitcoin still has a chance to reach new historical highs by year-end.

In a recent CNBC interview, the Bitwise Chief Investment Officer pointed out that the current crypto market is playing out "two worlds":

Retail sentiment among crypto natives is collapsing, with leveraged liquidations and yield protocols continuously faltering;

Meanwhile, institutional investors are still continuously increasing their holdings, driving capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

He believes this indicates that the market is entering a turning point.

"The retail liquidation process is nearing completion, and selling pressure is close to exhaustion, while buying remains strong."

Regarding the year-end market, he predicts that Bitcoin prices could rise to the $125,000 to $130,000 range, stating that "Saylor's target of $150,000 is not out of reach."

He also emphasized that institutional investors are becoming the new dominant force in the market, and their rationality and long-term perspective will drive the next round of market movements.

"We are closer to the bottom than we think."

Previous Prediction King Murad: 116 Reasons Why the 2026 Bull Market Will Come.

On December 6, Murad stated: The recent 36% drop we have seen is not something we have never encountered before. If you look at all the pullbacks in this cycle, this one is the fastest, most urgent, and largest. But we have seen a 32% pullback in early 2025 and a 33% pullback in mid-2024. These pullbacks are roughly comparable to the current 36% drop. Therefore, relative to the current situation in this cycle, this is not an unusual occurrence. The three-day line has formed a bullish hammer, which is usually a reversal pattern. We need to wait and see if we can establish a bottom in the next two to three weeks, but this specific three-day candlestick pattern is bullish. We are still in a pattern of continuously higher lows. From a higher time frame perspective, assuming that this low of $80,005 is a local low, BTC is technically still creating higher lows. BTC has just tested the two-week demand zone, and we are essentially at a support level.