Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.05 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, which is $1.79 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $30.82 billion, increasing by 0.85% in the last 7 days, marking the second week of positive growth for stablecoins, with USDT holding a 60.2% share.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen, including: BTC down 3% over the past week, ETH down 4.38%, SOL down 4.03%, LUNC up 62.7%, and CHEEMS up 11.15%.

This week, the net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $88.1 million; the net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $65.6 million.

Market Forecast (December 8 - December 14):

The current RSI index is 42.7 (neutral range), and the Fear and Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, indicating general fear). The Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).

Market sentiment: We are currently in a critical window for structural repair and trend confirmation. After experiencing a panic sell-off in recent weeks, the market has seen a significant rebound, primarily driven by improved macro liquidity expectations (surging probabilities of Fed rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening) and short covering after panic selling. However, whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained trend still requires a breakthrough at key price levels for confirmation.

Based on the latest technical analysis, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen below the critical "bull-bear demarcation line," with the short to medium-term technical outlook shifting from bullish to neutral or even bearish. To regain an upward trend, the market must first effectively reclaim the following key levels:

BTC core range: $90,000-95,000

ETH core range: $3,000-3,500

SOL core range: $130-150

Risks: Pay attention to the Fed's dynamics on December 10. The market's expectations for rate cuts (currently at 82.8% probability) are a core driver recently, and any disappointment in these expectations could trigger severe volatility. Beware of "fragile rallies": if prices rise but trading volume does not effectively increase, caution is warranted regarding the risk of a pullback.

Understand Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On December 1, Bloomberg reported that the prediction market platform Kalshi faced a class-action lawsuit for conducting sports betting activities without any state gambling licenses and making misleading statements to users regarding market-making activities;

2. On December 1, David Sacks, the White House cryptocurrency and AI director, publicly questioned The New York Times' investigation into his conduct during his tenure as the head of White House AI and cryptocurrency affairs, arguing that the paper spent months pursuing unfounded allegations;

3. On December 5, according to lookonchain monitoring, Circle issued an additional 500 million USDC just one hour ago, bringing the total issuance to 10 billion USDC over the past month;

4. On December 3, U.S. President Trump stated during a cabinet meeting last night that he might announce his choice for the Federal Reserve chair early next year, adding that Treasury Secretary Basant does not want the position. He has evaluated 10 candidates for the Fed, with only one left. Trump also mentioned that a potential Fed chair was present at the White House meeting when introducing Hassett. Additionally, Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, stating that even JPMorgan CEO Dimon said Powell should lower interest rates;

5. On December 4, Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset management company, reversed its stance, and Bank of America advised interested investors to allocate 1%-4% of their portfolios to digital assets;

6. On December 4, Cointelegraph reported that the meme coin PEPE official website was attacked and is currently redirecting users to malicious links;

7. On December 5, Meta is considering cutting its metaverse department's budget by 30% next year, with its stock price rising by 3.4%;

8. On December 5, the China Internet Finance Association, in collaboration with multiple departments, issued a new risk warning regarding the prevention of illegal activities related to virtual currencies. This comes three years after the cryptocurrency risk warning in 2022. Over the past five years, the association has issued four significant announcements at key market speculation points;

9. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has allowed listed spot crypto products to trade on its registered futures exchanges for the first time, marking a significant breakthrough in the U.S. regulatory framework. Bitnomial Exchange plans to launch a CFTC-regulated leveraged retail spot platform on December 8;

10. On December 4, the Ethereum mainnet successfully activated its 17th major upgrade, "Fusaka," marking the official entry of Ethereum into a "twice-a-year hard fork" accelerated development rhythm;

11. Binance founder CZ stated that his future work focus will shift to the BNB Chain ecosystem and serving as a crypto advisor to multiple governments; co-founder He Yi has officially taken on the role of co-CEO of Binance.

Macroeconomics

1. On December 3, the U.S. ADP employment change for November was -32,000, with an expectation of +10,000 and a previous value of +42,000;

2. On December 4, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, the lowest since the week of September 24, 2022. The expectation was 220,000, and the previous value was revised from 216,000 to 218,000;

3. On December 5, the U.S. core PCE price index for September was reported at 2.8%, with an expectation of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.9%;

4. On December 6, according to the Fed rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, from December 1 to December 5, the net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $88.1 million; as of December 5, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.001 billion, currently holding $14.964 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.453 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $117.67 billion.

The net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $65.6 million.

Envision the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Chainlink: The rewards distribution period for Q1 will end at 22:00 on December 9. Participants must allocate Cubes during the distribution period to claim tokens during the claim period (starting December 16);

2. Aster's S4 buyback will start on December 10, with 60-90% of the fees generated in the S4 phase used for token buybacks.

Important Events

1. On December 11 at 3:00, the U.S. will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit) as of December 10;

2. On December 11 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 (in thousands);

3. On December 12 at 1:00, the Federal Reserve will release data on the financial health of U.S. households from the third quarter of 2025.

Token Unlocks

1. Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on December 9, valued at approximately $7.43 million, accounting for 1.62% of the circulating supply;

2. CARV (CARV) will unlock 16.11 million tokens on December 10, valued at approximately $2.16 million, accounting for 1.61% of the circulating supply;

3. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on December 10, valued at approximately $12.3 million, accounting for 2% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.