Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: CPI Data Approaches, May Further Confirm the Rationality of the Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Cycle

Despite the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week and the release of more dovish signals than anticipated, the real challenges faced in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in the U.S. stock and bond markets. This week, long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose broadly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by about 5 basis points during the "Federal Reserve rate cut week." The macro outlook for next week is as follows:

• Monday 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks;
• Monday 23:30: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook;
• Thursday 01:30: 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook;
• Thursday 21:30: U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year/core CPI year-on-year, U.S. November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month/core CPI month-on-month;
• Thursday 21:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13;
• Friday 23:00: U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, U.S. December one-year inflation expectations final value.

The release of U.S. CPI data next week will be a key turning point for the dollar's trend. If the CPI data is below expectations (the latest data is currently 3%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale for the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; conversely, it could reverse this trend.