K33 Analyst: Bitcoin's performance in Q4 significantly lags behind the stock market, which may indicate a positive trend in January

According to CoinDesk, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that as the year-end approaches, Bitcoin may benefit from asset managers adjusting their portfolios to maintain established asset allocation ratios, given that Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other asset classes this quarter. Earlier this year, Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in the first quarter, then began to rise in the second quarter.

In contrast, when Bitcoin outperformed stocks in the second quarter, it saw a decline at the beginning of the third quarter. So far, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by as much as 26% in the fourth quarter, indicating that a significant rebalancing is imminent. Lunde mentioned that fund managers with established Bitcoin allocation targets may adjust their positions before the end of the year, potentially leading to substantial inflows on the last trading day of this year and early January of next year.

He also noted that despite price stabilization, market participants remain reluctant to take on new risks. Derivatives trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is nearing annual lows, with Bitcoin futures open interest at about 124,000 contracts; the funding rates in the perpetual contract market are close to neutral, and there are small changes in open interest, indicating a lack of short-term directional confidence. Last week, spot cryptocurrency trading volume dropped by 12%, further confirming low trader participation as the year-end approaches.