Analysis: U.S. stocks generally rose as investors are positioning themselves for optimistic expectations in 2026

The U.S. stock market has kicked off the traditional "Santa Claus rally," with major indices generally closing higher. Gold and silver both hit historic highs, while platinum is also nearing record levels. The cryptocurrency market, however, saw a pullback after a surge. The S&P 500 index closed higher on Monday, erasing all losses from December and is on track for an eight-month winning streak, marking the longest consecutive gains since 2018.

There are multiple driving forces behind this rally. First, last Friday's record "triple witching" options expiration cleared a significant amount of bullish positions in the S&P 500 within the 6700-6800 range, creating space for stock prices to rise. The VIX volatility index fell below 15, reaching its lowest level since August, while short-term implied volatility continues to compress. Analysts believe that market makers' hedging demand has shifted to a trend-following approach, pushing the market into a "slow climb" rhythm.

Secondly, seasonal factors provide a favorable environment, as historical data shows that the end of the year is typically a strong period for the stock market. Additionally, investors are positioning themselves ahead of optimistic expectations for 2026, including accelerated GDP and corporate earnings growth, as well as the potential transformation of AI trading. Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that if the Fed does not continue to cut rates next year, there is a risk of recession, and dovish remarks further boosted risk appetite. From a technical perspective, the next psychological level for the market is the 7000-point mark for the S&P 500.