Matrixport: In this round of risk aversion, gold has the upper hand, while Bitcoin is difficult to be widely included as an official reserve asset

According to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen, gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs, achieving nearly 80% excess returns relative to Bitcoin over the past year, with particularly outstanding performance in certain phases.

In this round of market activity, excess returns have been more concentrated in traditional hedging assets like gold, corresponding to a decline in interest rates, lower inflation, and an increasing market expectation for the Federal Reserve to shift to a more dovish stance by 2026.

Although BlackRock has been reinforcing the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" in recent years, central banks around the world still primarily allocate their reserve assets in gold. Due to its high volatility, significant exposure, and certain political sensitivities, Bitcoin is currently difficult to be included in official reserve assets on a large scale.

From a medium to long-term perspective, the direction of U.S. policy remains the most critical uncertainty: the Trump administration could theoretically choose to revalue gold prices, sell off some reserves, or marginally diversify part of the reserves into Bitcoin.