Vitalik: The risk of predicting the market is no higher than that of the stock market, and critics fear being exaggerated

According to DLnews, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded to concerns about prediction markets threatening the integrity of sports events and elections.

He pointed out that the improper incentives created by prediction markets have long existed in the stock market, where politicians can profit by shorting stocks and then press the "create disaster" button. He believes that prediction markets should be compared to social media, which is more likely to spread panic and misinformation, while prediction markets can provide useful information.

Vitalik stated that he has often felt panic due to news headlines, but calmed down after checking Polymarket prices, saying, "Experienced people know the real situation; the probability of unusual events occurring is only 4%." He cited Elon Musk's claim in 2024 that a civil war in the UK was inevitable, at which time the probability given by Polymarket users was only 3%.