CryptoQuant: Bitcoin RSI is close to the bear market boundary, and falling below the 4-year moving average usually indicates a potential entry into a deeper bear market phase

CryptoQuant institutional Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. released the latest analysis stating that Bitcoin has fallen 19.7% (approximately $21,500) over the past three months, with a year-to-date decline of 10.5% (approximately $10,400), showing a significant correction trend.

Although the price has stabilized in the short term (up 1.5% weekly, down 0.5% monthly), the monthly RSI indicator shows a weakening market momentum, currently at 56.5, falling below the 12-month average (67.3) for the first time, and just 2 points away from the 4-year average (58.7). According to historical data, an RSI falling below the 4-year average typically indicates that the market may enter a deeper bear market phase.

Adler pointed out that the next 1-2 months are crucial; if the RSI can maintain between 55-58, Bitcoin may have a chance to recover; if it continues to fall below 55, it may enter a deeper downward phase. Investors need to closely monitor the subsequent performance of the RSI to determine whether the market is in a correction cycle or shifting towards a deeper downtrend.