Bubblemaps: Currently, some analyses targeting insider trading on Polymarket in the market have flaws

The on-chain trading analysis platform Bubblemaps posted on X, stating that the analysis of insiders at Polymarket has gone out of control. Some posts link Maduro's insider status at Polymarket to a co-founder of WLFI, which sounds sensational but is logically weak.

There are also analyses claiming that an insider at Polymarket obtained about 250 SOL from Coinbase, and that a similar SOL deposit was made to Coinbase the day before, asserting that the correlation between the two is 99%.

Bubblemaps pointed out that this conclusion is flawed: the time interval is too large, and it only considers the inflow of SOL without accounting for the possibility of USDC, ETH, or other assets. In fact, within the same one-day window, 20 matching cases can also be found. Furthermore, the deposit could have originated from a bank transfer, multiple small deposits, or actions taken months or years ago.

It warns that while time analysis is powerful, improper use can lead to almost any erroneous conclusion.