CryptoQuant: The current rise in BTC benefits from reduced selling pressure, but if it rises to $100,000, it will face selling from short-term holders

CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the current state reflects that the selling pressure from key groups (short-term holders) is suppressed, and there is no clear confirmation of demand. The key deterioration trigger is that the SMA continues to stay below the zero axis, which will mark a transition to the distribution range.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price) refers to the average acquisition cost of holders who have held their coins for less than 155 days. The BTC price is currently trading below this price, indicating that the average short-term holder is in a loss position. The short-term holders being "underwater" limits the potential for this group to take profits, with the $100,000 level constituting local resistance. This currently reduces selling pressure and explains why, despite the price correction, the oscillator can still maintain in the accumulation range where selling pressure is suppressed.

Once the price reaches $100,000 and this group returns to breakeven, short-term holders will begin to sell, creating price pressure. The key confirmation signal for a market rally is when the price closes above the short-term holder realized price.