Ethereum breaks through the key $3300: Coinbase premium gap needs to turn positive

Ethereum continues its pullback trend since Wednesday, with analyst CryptoOnchain pointing out key bearish signals: the Coinbase premium gap's 14-day moving average has dropped to -2.285, the lowest since February 2025, indicating weak demand from U.S. institutional investors. The Coinbase premium gap reflects the price difference between the U.S. institutional market and the global retail market, with negative values indicating insufficient buying interest.

Additionally, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows, recording an outflow of $98.45 million on January 7, the first outflow in 2026. Analysts warn that unless the Coinbase premium turns positive and demand in the U.S. spot market returns, the likelihood of breaking through the $3,300 resistance remains low.

However, Morgan Stanley has submitted an application for an ETH spot ETF, and technical indicators show hidden bullish divergence and narrowing Bollinger Bands, leaving the market direction uncertain.