The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 5%

According to Jinshi, before the release of the U.S. November PCE data, the CME "FedWatch" indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 5%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.4%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 84.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.6%.