Analysis: Bitcoin is attempting to stage a counter-trend rebound

Matrixport's analysis states that after a round of capitulation selling, Bitcoin is attempting to stage a counter-trend rebound. This round of decline has washed out weak positions and triggered passive selling pressure and chain liquidations in the derivatives market. In the short term, there is still room for a technical rebound; however, whether the rebound can extend further depends on whether there is new capital to take over, rather than relying solely on short covering and systematic hedging funds to sustain it.

As previously mentioned, Bitcoin is still in a larger bear market reset phase. During this phase, rapid surges are not uncommon, but they often struggle to sustain. On-chain data continues to confirm that the current environment remains relatively weak: demand momentum is weakening, and structural accumulation is limited. Meanwhile, hedging activities in the options market are heating up, further amplifying volatility. If spot demand remains weak, prices are more likely to experience gap-down movements, and the impact of derivatives on Bitcoin prices will also increase.