Kaiko: Bitcoin falling below $60,000 may mark the halfway point of a bear market, historical bottom still to be observed

Kaiko Research analysis indicates that Bitcoin fell to around $59,930 earlier this month, marking a new low since October 2024, which may signify the "midpoint" of the current bear market. The market has moved away from the post-halving frenzy phase and entered a typical bear market period that usually lasts about 12 months, paving the way for the next accumulation phase.

On-chain indicators and the performance of mainstream crypto assets show that the market is approaching key technical support levels, which will determine whether the four-year cycle framework continues. The spot trading volume on major centralized exchanges has decreased from about $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November, a drop of approximately 30%. The total open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has also decreased from $29 billion to $25 billion, indicating ongoing market deleveraging. With multi-cycle oversold indicators emerging, the question of Bitcoin's rebound is more about "when it will happen" rather than "if it will happen."