JPMorgan lowers Coinbase's target price, expecting performance to be affected by weakened trading volume and cryptocurrency prices

JPMorgan has lowered Coinbase's target price from $399 to $290, citing factors such as a decline in cryptocurrency market trading volume, weakening asset prices, and a slowdown in USDC growth. However, the firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on Coinbase.

Analysts expect Coinbase's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter to drop to approximately $734 million, a significant decline from the previous quarter, primarily impacted by reduced spot trading volume and weakened stablecoin-related revenue. JPMorgan anticipates spot trading volume for the quarter to be around $263 billion, with stablecoin-related revenue of about $312 million. Although the acquisition of the derivatives exchange Deribit by Coinbase brings additional revenue contributions, the overall market downturn continues to exert pressure on performance.

In addition to JPMorgan, institutions such as Barclays and Compass Point also hold a more cautious stance, believing that retail trading, blockchain rewards, and subscription and service revenue may fall short of expectations, and continue to be highly dependent on the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market.