CryptoQuant: The "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is around $55,000

According to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant stated that the "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.

Analysis shows that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom has not yet approached. The monthly cumulative realized loss (in BTC) remains far below the bear market bottom level: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.

Several key valuation indicators have also not entered the historical capitulation zone: the MVRV ratio has not reached the extremely undervalued range; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of about 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently selling at approximately breakeven, while during historical bear market bottoms, they typically endure losses of 30%-40%; about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows are usually around 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase" rather than the "extreme bear market phase," which historically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of the price entering a bottoming phase.