Analysis: The scale of Bitcoin ETFs has moderately decreased, still dominated by neutral and hedging positions

The cryptocurrency research institution 10X Research points out that although the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 46% from its peak, Bitcoin ETFs have only recorded a net outflow of $8.5 billion, which is a relatively moderate decrease compared to the total assets of the ETFs.

The structural characteristics of ETF ownership show that the dominant players are market makers and hedge funds focused on arbitrage, whose positions are mostly hedged or market-neutral rather than directional bets on Bitcoin. Additionally, there is a significant proportion of long-term institutional investors, who have a low turnover rate and longer investment horizons.

According to the latest 13F filings for the fourth quarter of 2025, it is estimated that 55-75% of the $61 billion assets of BlackRock's IBIT are still held by market makers and hedge funds focused on arbitrage. During the consolidation period of Bitcoin prices around $88,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, market makers reduced their exposure by approximately $1.6-2.4 billion, reflecting a decline in speculative demand and a decrease in arbitrage demand.