Analyst under Tom Lee: ETH dropped to a low of $1367, but the implied return over the next 12 months is 81%

Tom Lee's Fundstrat digital asset strategy head Sean Farrell published the latest Ethereum analysis, stating that the current average cost of ETH is $2,241, while the current price is $1,934, indicating an average loss of 22% for investors.

Comparing the current decline with historical lows, in 2022, the average maximum loss for investors reached 39%, and in 2025, the average maximum loss was 21%. Applying these two figures to the current average cost of $2,241 suggests that ETH could drop to a low of $1,367 or $1,770.

Based on the realized loss percentile analysis since 2017, the current average loss is at a historical high of 9%, indicating a high level of loss. The implied 12-month return rate is +81%. This suggests that the price of Ethereum is nearing the bottom. In the long term, Ethereum's risk/reward ratio appears to be positive.

Tom Lee himself shared this analysis, stating that it helps in thinking about investor capital flows and position allocation near the lows.