Economists: Bitcoin still has structural upside potential, with an 88% probability of rising by the end of the year

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months in the past 24 months recorded positive returns, suggesting a higher probability of a positive return turning point in any 24-month period.

Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above the current level in the next 10 months is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline.

The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the gains after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media interest in Bitcoin predictions has dried up, with sentiment trending neutral.